I'm in a lot higher, but have averaged down here ... Anyone else like it? My gut tells me you'll get a news release in the next few days and this thing will be up 50 points.
1) No. 2) Did you have a bad burrito for lunch? 3) Hopefully for you it rallies from 385 to 435, not from 300 to 350 after the "good" news comes out. 4) The stock needs to have a high-volume, capitulation, selling day of several million shares before the worst may be over. We'll see.
Looks awful cheap to me here, seems like volume of trades is always growing, and who is their competition?
cme/cbot got a bad deal on the cboe seat issue...maybe that is the reason for the current weakness...fwiw
if a high volume capitulation day doesn't happen, what other ways are there to help increase the odds of spotting a bottom?
1) A low volume, wide range, capitulation day. 2) The stock could merely move sideways at a "depressed" level until GS or MS reiterates a buy-recommendation on it. 3) Bearish news could come out afterhours but the stock opens steady the next day.
I am long spot from 376 and long the 360/400/440 June fly from ~12.50. Long the June/July 400 call calendar from ~12.50 to neutralize vega.
One of my best friends never sold his IPO stock and he's pretty freaked out to see his net worth (he was a so-so local but he kept his seat) cut in half. I can rattle off dozens of guys I know who're long. I agree there will need to be a high volume capitulation day. Although I like CME more at <400 than >700 Here's my prob with the stock . It's still expensive considering a few factors. 1.The futures industry has gone decades without introducing a successful new product line. Re-insurance, housing, single stock, climate-all no volume losers. A low 20's p/e may still be high with the lack of innovation. 2.Competition from that âFour Seasonsâ exchange cannot be dismissed. CME has been breaking since the new challenger announced formation. 3.Exchange mergers are being arbed out. Old news. Jeez how many have there been? At this point rather than buying an existing exchange you'll see exchange startups. IMO this stock will trade in the low 300's before it trades again in the high 400's.