I re-loaded all my length today at avg price of 6.2976. Still like the upside here as the weather forecast I am getting from my private guys is cold for the next few weeks. There are many other parameters of why I am so bullish here but not enough time to write them now. But I am max bullish down here.
theory: crude started a collapse just after Cheney went to Arabia to get a lashing from the King re: security in Sunni Iraq...so the bargain was to send 20,000 more troops and in return, Arabia would let oil drift down to put the heat to Venezoo-ela and Iran....notice how OPEC has been silent as of late???? Arabia must have threatened to get involved in Iraq to the point where the conflict would go regional...Arabia vs. Iran kind of dance............ a theory of course
Very interesting... very interesting. I hope these buys aren't just weekend short cover panic attacks. Hopefully the shorts are having real panic attacks.
WOW!!!! If the GFS weather model run I just looked at confirms, we will see some of the coldest temps in the NE that we have seen in this decade or longer. Late Jan/Early Feb runs are absolutely FRIGID! This is an area of widespread cold throughout much of the US with the coldest core being in the NE. Many areas well below 0. Stay tuned, if the long range runs hold cold, the natural gas runup could be vicious.
Friday was just a short covering rally its been warm pretty much until the end of January and we truly only have one month of winter left realistically and the reality is sinking in that there is plenty of crude to go around and that the comfortable price level will and should be 40.00-50.00, so going long here is just thinking of the bull and where oil was and that it has to get there. Tomorrow crude will be weaker, now that there has been no news of a tanker being blown up or major cold weather. Ill be looking to short tommorow on any spike up if any.
I agree that crude is going to be rangebound the next month between $51 and $53.50 but we're discussing natural gas
Weather models are hit or miss at best. modern science still doesn't have the weather figured out. Besides, its not weather that caused the slide in the first place. That is just what the analysts and journalists use as an excuse cause they have to say something. They do this crap every single day in the Wall Street Journal for a wide variety of commodities. The crude slide was mainly technical, and supplies had been building even before the warm spell as well. Its just coincidence that the slide accelerated when it was warm, and so that's what gets the blame. Some of the largest down days were during really nasty weather this past week. Ignore the crap you read, or hear on the TV. Look at your charts!
As Gene said, this thread is about natural gas. However, if you have traded commodities for any length of time you should know that trends need corrections to maintain a healthy trend and crude is now well oversold and has technically given my work a short-term buy signal. I did get long Feb at 50.85 and do expect at minimal, a retracement to the 55/55.50 area. Unfortunately Feb rolls off the board Monday and March takes over with about a +1.45ish roll gap so the target area i speak of should be met with about a $2 rally in the March. I will say this, when I get sell signals in crude, I stay flat and wait to buy. The situation in Iran will not just fade away over time, at some point either the US or Israel will strategically attack Irans nuclear facilities, and I would not want to be short crude at that time as the move up will be vapor for at least $10. It is likely that we will be sleeping when this occurs. If you want to be short, at least consider defining max risk by buying puts, you will sleep easier.
Just booked profits at 7.211 Feb natty on my longs from thursday at 6.2976. I am taking my profits and buying March/selling April at March -.03 under for some size. Will Re-establish length tomorrow after cash trading is over as I feel that we may pull back just a little from here. I am targeting a buy in the 7.05ish area to get outright long again.
Good point. I shouldn't be too greedy. Shorts might want to come back in in the morning. Sold @ $7.210 too Comanche, are you considering the buy march/sell april spread trade now rather than @ $7.05? The bid-ask spread looks pretty large on Mar-Apr, I see a 0.005 spread on my screen right now.