Major weather pattern shift coming next week. This pattern is likely to dominate for at least the next month, finally drawing on storage as we will be entering the coldest period of the winter towards the end of the month. Market is flush with short interest looking for an exit on confirmation of all this. We have been experiencing the warmest weather so far relative to avgs. the last 2 weeks and we cannot break $6 even on EIA withdrawals coming in less than expected. The short side appears to be exhausted at this point IMO.
$6 does seem to be a stronghold for the prompt month. I'm awaitin for the pre-weekend weather short covering. Maybe I should move out of the Feb-Mar spread into the Feb-Apr spread, seems to be more meat there.
Getting more bullish with each weather model run now to the extent that I feel confident that the 2007 natural gas lows are in. Think we are in a bull market now for the next several weeks at minimum. Have a good weekend.
You too, btw, the Feb-Mar spread has stayed flat at $0.165 and Mar-Apr at $0.100 even with a move from -1% to +1% today, any idea why they did not drop? Do we need a sustained uptrend to move February closer to March and March closer to April?
Comanche: by the way, great call on both front month and the spread.. especially front month. i haven't seen nat gas gap up 25c in a long time.
This is how we do it. When it's Tuesday night, and I feel all riiight, party's here on the west side. So we seem to be hitting resistance at $6.540 Feb/$0.12 Feb/Mar spread. Will it hold... will it hold.. methinks not. What say you, Comanche?