1/ You should not enter unless you are 100% convinced that cycle is complete and price will reverse right away. 2/ If price will not move significantly against me, but there is no reversal, I would let stops in place and wait till I am convinced that reversal will not happen or I am stopped out. 3/ If the price moves significantly against you at the time of a forecasted reversal, just get out. There is no universal time period to be used across all markets. For example. I expect QQQQ to gap open tomorrow and I might fade the gap if conditions are met. Intraday cycle should be completed by 9:50est but there must be confirmation by other indicators at that time. It might take another 30-60 min for everything to fall in place. So cycle completion is just a marker in the future when reversal is most likely to happen. Cycles TA will give you higher probability of reversal but cannot be used as standalone. Unless you are reeeally good.
Even there was no gap, cycle was clearly over by 9:45 est but best entry was almost one hour late. So I do not think that time entries or stops would work arbitrarily at all.
Trading time is arbitrary. Trading arbitrarily will get you arbitrary results. It's no wonder traders attend gamblers anonymous.
I think in the context he was speaking he was denoting the human factor as when shear panic enters the scene. Not the run of the mill human activity.
In the process of devising my index futures trading strategy, I had considered in some depth whether or not to use time stops... My final system was found not to be compatible with time stops, since by the moment any feasible time stop was triggered, I would already have exited or would already be in profit... Time stops, however, may have a profitable role if you are trading very short timeframes of upto a few minutes...
Cool. I trade the 5 minute timeframe and w/in about 15 minutes of holding I usually see a nice volume push in my direction to have a successful half cycle. It seems that extremely low volume(<2500 for ES 5 min) is better for sidelineing and indicative of a failed half cycle. Like today from 1:25-1:35pm. Thanks for sharing.
I'm glad you are comfortable with this concept, I know others that aren't. A point stressed is better than one omitted.
no, in fact i was opposing what you said and remarking that what you wrote included no content what so ever. i doubt anyone here will disagree: