Time Series Prediction and Neural Networks

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by Optionpro007, Nov 3, 2006.

  1. yes you can chart prem. i don't see any 7 or 8 points, unless you give the forecasts a few minutes leeway in hindsight.
     
    #11     Nov 3, 2006
  2. spinn

    spinn

    I guess I got a little off topic. My method really doesnt predict time....I would never try to do that.

    One thing I do look at is the length of a cycle. The next cycle often tends to be the length of the previous cycle.

    I just wait until a down cycle has exhausted itself and then look to buy. That means you are buying at the low and selling at the high

    Buying at the low is a lot more fun than buying at the high.
     
    #12     Nov 3, 2006
  3. I suppose. I am not attesting to anything, just to what the poster alluded to.

    In hindsight it is clear that in a few occasions the system was 5 min off.

    but still pretty impressive imo.

    :)

     
    #13     Nov 3, 2006
  4. spinn

    spinn

    Thats why I wouldnt relie on time predictions...actually, predicting anything is a waste of time.

    If you are 5 minutes off.....the SP can run five points during that five minutes making your entry a loser.
     
    #14     Nov 3, 2006
  5. It depends of where you put your stops, your entry methods, etc....

    I think market movements, as things that happen in the physical world can be predicted with some amount of accuracy.

    If not the weather man will always be wrong..


     
    #15     Nov 3, 2006