I find that at around 2 PM, the ES generally starts to break out of the lunchtime range and trend in some direction. I make money during this afternoon grind. However, I find that the morning session is too fast-moving. can anyone share some observations and/or strategy(ies) that work during the morning whipsaws? B
You may have to first share the specifics (including chart examples) of your strategy for trading the 2pm price action. Do that and I'm sure someone will do the same for you via sharing how to trade profitably trade in the morning whipsaws. What exactly are you having problems with the morning whipsaws... Poor entries or poor trade management after entry? Please give a detailed recent example of a problematic trade in whipsaw price action. Last of all, very important question, do you see it as whipsaw after the fact (hindsight analysis) or as it is occurring? Thanks. Mark
it used to be that the index futs would sell from the open till about 11am, then rise from that time to the next days open. if you check it out back about 4 years it was pretty consistent on like er2 for a good amount of time.........until i tried to capitalize on it lol
Stupid question - if you can make regular money in the afternoon session and the morning is hard for you, why bother with the morning to begin with? Just load up in the afternoon where you know your odds are better. Why try to stick a square peg into a round hole? The ES is plenty liquid so you can definitely make your money there trading size.
i would start trading at 10 am instead of 9:30 (unless there is a number of course). I love the MACD in shorter time frames along with Fibs and price action. Giving yourself two hours to trade a day doesn't seem like a good option, some days (like today and many Fridays) give you nothing in the afternoon to trade IMO.
================ Yes; wait till 1/2 hour or hour candle is formed, from 8;30 chicago time. SPY maybe more suitable for some
Mark, Having just read your post the issue of determining whip/chop vs. direction or trend is one which I wish I could determine in the moment. I know the conventional ways ADX, looking at a higher time frame chart, etc. It's easy to see after the fact, but in the moment I sit there looking at the screen on a 10-15 min ER2/ES chart and ponder is this a V bottom only to see it 1/3 of the time drift sides before it rolls back over or builds up momentum. Having said that, Mark since I respect your opinion on this board, do you have any suggestions to see things more clearly?
I will tell you that I personally don't trade the first 15-20 minutes of the open on ER2, YM, etc. It's just too whippy. I am finding that the day can be broken down into 3-4 sections. The first 1/2 hour. The next 1 1/2 to 2 hours, Lunchtime 1-2 hours ( when bots hit buy or sell programs often ) and lastly the remaining approx. 2 hours. These time frames aren't absolute as lunchtime seems to start early some days for big money players based on dying volume and price action.
Have you ever considered that your thought might be spot on, but your stop not wide enough to withstand the pullbacks before your move occurs? Just a thought?