Time of Day Bias for ES

1-6-2006 reversal (2 pt) review : S for setup; T for trend

9:33 S T
10:25
10:54
11:09 T
11:37
11:54
2:18
2:43
3:06

Tally: #days = 7

Time #Reversals #Setups #Trends
9:30 2 1 1
9:45 1 0 0
10:00 5 2 1
10:15 2 1 1
10:30 4 2 0
10:45 4 3 1
11:00 4 1 0
11:15 2 1 1
11:30 3 0 1
11:45 2 2 1
12:00 3 1 1
12:15 1 1 0
12:30 1 0 0
12:45 2 2 0
1:00 1 0 0
1:15 2 1 1
1:30 3 0 1
1:45 1 0 0
2:15 4 2 2
2:30 1 0 0
2:45 2 1 1
3:00 2 1 0
3:15 1 0 0
3:30 1 0 0
3:45 2 1 0
4:00 1 0 0

 

1-9-2006 reversal (2 pt) review : S for setup; T for trend

10:06 S T
10:32
11:05 S T
1:57 S T
2:45 S T

Tally: #days = 8

Time #Reversals #Setups #Trends
9:30 2 1 1
9:45 1 0 0
10:00 6 3 2
10:15 2 1 1
10:30 5 2 0
10:45 4 3 1
11:00 5 2 1
11:15 2 1 1
11:30 3 0 1
11:45 2 2 1
12:00 3 1 1
12:15 1 1 0
12:30 1 0 0
12:45 2 2 0
1:00 1 0 0
1:15 2 1 1
1:30 3 0 1
1:45 1 0 0
2:00 1 1 1
2:15 4 2 2
2:30 1 0 0
2:45 3 2 2
3:00 2 1 0
3:15 1 0 0
3:30 1 0 0
3:45 2 1 0
4:00 1 0 0

 

I wouldn't be reading this if I was smart.

 

1-10-2006 reversal (2 pt) review : S for setup; T for trend

9:54
10:38 S
11:07 T
12:18
12:50
1:25 S T
2:38 S T


Tally: #days = 9

Time #Reversals #Setups #Trends
9:30 2 1 1
9:45 1 0 0
10:00 7 3 2
10:15 2 1 1
10:30 5 2 0
10:45 5 4 1
11:00 6 2 2
11:15 2 1 1
11:30 3 0 1
11:45 2 2 1
12:00 3 1 1
12:15 2 1 0
12:30 1 0 0
12:45 3 2 0
1:00 1 0 0
1:15 2 1 1
1:30 4 1 2
1:45 1 0 0
2:00 1 1 1
2:15 4 2 2
2:30 1 0 0
2:45 4 3 3
3:00 2 1 0
3:15 1 0 0
3:30 1 0 0
3:45 2 1 0
4:00 1 0 0

 

I have finished tallying the days that I missed since the beginning of the year. Looks like the distribution of reversals over the time buckets are NOT equal (not random). The morning seems to offer more opportunities for reversals. I am not sure if any time period offers better predictability because it seems like my setup can be found in about half the reversals for most time slots. There are tiny islands of opportunities scattered in the afternoon. This pretty much confirms my experience. I will continue to add more data...

 

t ell the smart ones not to confuse reversals with counter trend trading..............

 

So if you buy the bottom tick of a down move then you are actually trading with the trend?

I like it!!

 

now I am confusd....what is a tick....?

 

the smallest increment a security can move by

 

1-17-2006 reversal (2 pt) review : S for setup; T for trend

9:32
9:49
10:17
10:30 S
10:46 S
11:10 T
12:50
1:19 S T
2:01
2:36 S


Tally: #days = 10

Time #Reversals #Setups #Trends
9:30 3 1 1
9:45 2 0 0
10:00 7 3 2
10:15 3 1 1
10:30 6 3 0
10:45 6 5 1
11:00 6 2 2
11:15 3 1 2
11:30 3 0 1
11:45 2 2 1
12:00 3 1 1
12:15 2 1 0
12:30 1 0 0
12:45 4 2 0
1:00 1 0 0
1:15 3 2 2
1:30 4 1 2
1:45 1 0 0
2:00 2 1 1
2:15 4 2 2
2:30 2 1 0
2:45 4 3 3
3:00 2 1 0
3:15 1 0 0
3:30 1 0 0
3:45 2 1 0
4:00 1 0 0