Time of Day Bias for ES

I forgot the biggest item of all News....only fomc...just before I am usually not in trade just before.....if I am I protect the money always anyway.....breakeven is always great.......as long as u don't always breakeven.........all other news is not watched......times are not volume is not...

 

I remember listening online to the NYMEX lunch speech by Paul Tudor Jones...

http://www.clicklive.com/NYMEX/symposium_2003/jones.htm

He said if you don't know what your edge is, you are gonna lose ALL YOUR MONEY. That single statement could have saved me a lot of $$$.

I am not so sure it is the same as the "WHY" because I don't think one can always get to the bottoms of all patterns... then the only way to gain conviction is to kinda let the market poke/test the patterns under different conditions and see if they are for real or just bogus hindsight...

Everyone has to be his/her own mad scientist.

 

I figured out what my edge is years ago.....unfailing determination.......the more u work the greater your edge...........being smart is usually kiss of death.........I'm safe

 

I wouldn't be trading if I am smart... so am I safe??

 

I am going back to the beginning of the year for more data points.

1-3-2006 reversal (2 pts) review : S for setup; T for trend

9:54
10:02 T
10:39 S T
12:10 S
12:33
1:36 T
2:21
2:23
3:34
3:54

Tally: #days = 4

Time #Reversals #Setups #Trends
9:30 1 0 0
10:00 4 2 1
10:30 2 1 0
10:45 2 2 1
11:00 2 1 0
11:30 2 0 1
11:45 2 2 1
12:15 1 1 0
12:30 1 0 0
12:45 1 1 0
1:00 1 0 0
1:15 1 1 1
1:30 2 0 1
2:15 2 1 1
2:30 1 0 0
3:00 1 1 0
3:15 1 0 0
3:30 1 0 0
3:45 2 1 0
4:00 1 0 0

 

1-4-2006 reversal (2 pts) review : S for setup; T for trend

10:18
10:24 S
10:43
10:58
11:14 S
12:01 S T
1:35
1:49
2:15 S T

Tally: #days = 5

Time #Reversals #Setups #Trends
9:30 1 0 0
10:00 4 2 1
10:15 1 0 0
10:30 3 2 0
10:45 3 2 1
11:00 3 1 0
11:15 1 1 0
11:30 2 0 1
11:45 2 2 1
12:00 1 1 1
12:15 1 1 0
12:30 1 0 0
12:45 1 1 0
1:00 1 0 0
1:15 1 1 1
1:30 3 0 1
1:45 1 0 0
2:15 3 2 2
2:30 1 0 0
3:00 1 1 0
3:15 1 0 0
3:30 1 0 0
3:45 2 1 0
4:00 1 0 0

 

I have done extensive research into finding a bias during certain periods of the day in the ES (and other) symbols.

I published the results of my segment bias study here.

and I also did research on when the high and low of the day might happen and also published an easy to use reference table of probabilities of when the high and low are most likely.

I know that the high and low stuff is only aligned to this topic and not directly related but the segment bias is what I believe you are talking about.

 

I believe your post was taken from Marsh's site. What could be his
last Workshops ever start tomorrow... (officially Tuesday)...

 

These are good studies. I remember a similar study by John Bollinger based on time of day and day of the week... and he too mentioned the "noon balloon." I guess the high/low studies will be of interested to the open range breakout traders.

My studies are in the same spirit but a little different to help my own trading. I want to pinpoint good environment for my style of trading regardless of directional bias. I am gonna need more data to make any meaningful conclusion but so far it is pointing at the first part of the day til noon being most productive.

 

1-5-2006 reversal (2 pt) review : S for setup; T for trend

9:40
9:58
10:08 S T
10:43 S
12:03
12:45 S
1:10
2:45 S T


Tally: #days = 6

Time #Reversals #Setups #Trends
9:30 1 0 0
9:45 1 0 0
10:00 5 2 1
10:15 2 1 1
10:30 3 2 0
10:45 4 3 1
11:00 3 1 0
11:15 1 1 0
11:30 2 0 1
11:45 2 2 1
12:00 2 1 1
12:15 1 1 0
12:30 1 0 0
12:45 2 2 0
1:00 1 0 0
1:15 2 1 1
1:30 3 0 1
1:45 1 0 0
2:15 3 2 2
2:30 1 0 0
2:45 1 1 1
3:00 1 1 0
3:15 1 0 0
3:30 1 0 0
3:45 2 1 0
4:00 1 0 0