I'll say "short term" is daily. it might turn into more than that. I made the same call 1 month ago and it worked. and yes I did call the top in "07........ right at the top
Oops... today looks up-up-up. I haven't had a short in over a week and keep seeing a field of green on the console (even yesterday was net up - not sure who lost). I have no idea why you think this is a top, but I don't. I was wrong on the last downswing in that I though it was deep enough to represent a long term trend. I lost some money as a result. But this has more than made up for it. I'm happy to stick in the trend while everyone says it can't go higher.
It is true to trade with the trend, but the longer a trend persists, the sharper the pullback. And the first poster is right, this rally is very long in the tooth. I prefer to trade on the short side.
just out of curiosity...who is buying this market...nobody I know is talking about stocks...is it GS? the govt using money its borrowed from China?
My assumption would be investors that got stopped out late last year or early this year and are just now getting over the pain. It's not a winning strategy, but then again there's no reason to assume they're winners. That said, I don't know.
Speaking of calling tops and bottoms. I remember a lot of chatter in 2006 and early 2007 about the impending subprime correction. Then everyone said the late-Feb early-March 2007 "correction" fixed everything... These things take a while to play out.
I was thinking last night about the question "who is buying?" and I wonder if it's the wrong question. It seems to me that in order to move so far on unexceptional volume, there must be a lack of market making and/or swing trading type activities that act as virtual limit orders. That to me makes total sense - this last year has been the most trending market I've ever seen, so on balance everyone adopting countertrending strategies must have gotten their teeth kicked in both going down and going up. If they, as a result, reduced their size or abandoned their countertrending strategy (which seems rational) then presumably it's now easier to move the market on low volume. The interesting thing about this is that it seems like positive feedback loop - the more trending we see, the more the countertrenders lose. And the more they lose, the easier it is to trend. Anyone want to explain why this is wrong, or if it's right what negative feedback mechanism eventually puts a stop to it? If the trend was down, I suppose pure fundamentals buying would eventually produce a floor. But when the trend is up, I don't see any analogous force.