If you assume a Nuclear Winter scenario of nationalization of basically everything in XLF and an average share price of $3, you get a "bottom" estimate for XLF of ~$4. Hopefully things don't get that bad. Hopefully, that doesn't turn out to be the optimistic scenario.
It's hard for me to believe in the nationalize all banks scenario since Buffett is one of the economic advisors for Obama and Buffett has a big stake in quite a few banks.
Peter Schiff on cnbc a few minutes ago said banks are worthless. Can wallstreet eliminate an entire sector?