Time and traders

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by paperboy, Sep 17, 2006.

  1. Gann said time was most important. When time is up the trend will change, he wrote. In a book i have he mention cycles of 60 years, 20 years, 15, 10, 1 year and the same in weeks and days.

    When cycles line up there is a higher probability for a change as i understand it. Some even say one cycle rule in every market and use planets, first trade day etc. But i don´t know if that is different because it´s always about probabilities, right?

    Individual traders can change the short cycles but do we have any influence over longer time periods? Longer time cycles start with a small change perhaps but..hmm ??

    AND why is time so important for us?
  2. I do not bother trying to understand long term cycles because a trend following method automatically trades long term price movements.

    I suspect planetary movements have some predictive value because I remember reading that some people in the Middle East, Indian subcontinent, Far East and Pacific Rim believe in astrology. Some wealthy people may make business decisions based on the movement of planets. For example, I recall the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait (year 1990) beginning when the planet mars entered the house of taurus. I recall a book at the library explaining that mars is the planet representing war and taurus the astrological sign representing strength or power. I suspect someone influential in the government of Saddam Hussein believes in astrology. The consequences of their actions probably makes prices change, although it is impossible to know exactly why everyone buys and sells. I recall oil price rising and stock index values declining following the year 1990 Iraq invasion of Kuwait.

    I do not personally have an interest in astrology.
  3. So far as I'm concerned, PriceTime Movement is irregular.

    Cycles do not exist in the PriceTime Movement of financial instruments when using this definition of cycle: recurring period, from the Greek ‘kuklos’ ~ circle: Oxford dictionary.

    The key is ‘circle’ in that a circle is perfect, its start/end points are the same, always recrossed. Various cycle analysis never exactly hits a top/bottom say, never indicates whether it’s a top or bottom that will occur, and is why ‘clustering’ is used – the expectation that if enough ‘cycles’ or fibo lines are occurring near each other there’ll be a change, which might happen, but doesn’t for me meet the ‘perfect’ recurring circle argument.

    As to traders, as we grow older we change and those changes may well influence and/or be reflected in our trading, so too everything/one else changes.
    One effort at measuring the human cyclic nature is biorhythm: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biorhythm which if nothing else illustrates how much change – irregularity exists in us.

    So too the Planets, while their individual orbits may be regular, the different orbits they each have mean recurring trading ‘orbit maps’ are non-existent.

    While Price is generally amazingly easy to predict/target by using the Fibonacci Price Levels (Retracement) tool, Time prediction/targeting remains far more difficult.
  4. I don't know about planets aligning or moons gravity having tidal influence over our subconcious actions because we are made up of water, but as far as time itself it is important.

    The longer a stock stays above or below a pricelevel the more I feel the price level is generally accepted, baring no emotional events take place. Support and resistantce is not just lines in the sand, I also feel they are pockets of time in which the perception of value permanantly changes as a whole. Maybe I am looking to much into it though, thats just how I see it conceptually.