That is about all I expected for all the trouble I went to. What can you expect from imbeciles if they don't know shit from clay. Nothing so just keep putting your money in the pool and we will collect it.
I do very much agree with your former comments, and the fact that this business consists of the smartest brains and toughest mo-fo's that have never failed at anything else in their lives, is self-understanding. However, I do disagree with your notion that a "system" cannot result in consistent profits. That is, of course, nonsense. This is not to speak from the position of other experienced system traders (who I am sure would agree), but from my own experience. Yes, I am a 90% discretionary trader, though my discretionary reasoning is 90% systematic. Does that make sense? Probably not. But what does make sense is that, all discretionary judgment trading aside, I have been working on developing parameter-or rule-based trading systems for several years now, and I can assure you that there are some very good ones. I also personally have a selection of a few quantitative, 100% rule-based, "mechanical" systems, which I constantly work on improving, and use very frequently, with good returns. Incidentally, due to low tolerance for noise, they work best on the two most efficient markets in the world (ES and BUND), which totally invalidates your point. And no, they are not based on MA crossovers, stochastics or any of that laggy TI crap. They are purely quantitative and statistic-based, and they sure do work. Let's face it, the market has amazing tendencies to repeat what has happened in the past. Enough tendencies to make a very good living out of it, even from a totally mechanical standpoint. By the way, your theory (that systems cannot be profitable) is actually a hypocrisy, because it basically assumes market efficiency / statistical non-predictability. Nothing could be further from the truth. If it were true, you couldn't be making money. Last but not least, you might not want to hear this, but your own trade entry and exit decisions are nothing but the progressions of complex rule-based boolean "IF-THEN" decision algorithms in your brain. You call it experience, you call it a vast set of rules and wisdoms. But at the end of the day, it's nothing but a complex set of rules, permanently stored in your brain. If those rules were to be coded into a system complex enough to mimick even just the most important parts of a good trader's decision-making processes, then the coded system will likely outperform the trader. Why? Because while the coded system may still lack lots of fine details, it certainly has the advantage of leaving emotional intervention from the trader out of the game. And mechanical rule-based decision algorithms are getting more and more complex every day, particularly in the field of finance and AI. This may sound futuristic, but you will see this happen more and more in your time. And if you don't accept it, you will fall by the wayside just like everyone else. Maybe 5-10 years from now, maybe longer if you're really lucky. You better believe it. Take it from somebody who does a lot of research and application - in both systematic and discretionary trading. Best Regards, Scientist
Wave..... If you want to join ET and share some knowledge, that's great. If you expect folks to kiss your ass......Well, as the song says, "You've got another thing comin'". Sing it with me bro.
not only is "trending" a post-facto definition, the vast majority of trading days don't even meet it.
I think you are a very sound thinker. But everyday the market introduces a new connundrum to the daily flow. Systems have a 4 year life span by my knowledge and if you keep trading them the will one day go into a tail spin and drag you down. You may not believe it but if you are a mathematical expert you better go talk to professors of mathematics who know the real truth. The market is no ones slave and it will never be one. That is my opinion and it has served me well and it always will. I wish you well but don't take what I have said lightly because I have the runs on the board doing it my way and I ain't gunna change a successful approach for a system. All the best. BBG
what can you do? wide stops and high leverage are death, it doesn't take a PhD in statistics to see that. people won't see what they don't want to see.
Good points Dado. Remember when we all first got started? I bet 99% of us took unreasonably wide stops/losses. THAT should tell people something, if they take the time to think about it.
If you know what is going on I applaud you. But so far you have not made any contribution to anything I have seen on this site. A bit like Prechter and Miner telling everyone to short the market all the way up. As for BSAM well what can you say he is just another lost sole wandering around in the wilderness and really has nothing constructive to offer except innuendo. Well boys I don't really care anyway - this was just another day in my life finding out what is on the otherside of my trades. )) BBG
Wavetrader, part of me wants you to stay around so can pick up some more hints, the other part wishes you'd go before you give away too much.