It's always fair to wait and think deeply about decisions on what to trade and where to put your money! Please let me know if I can answer any questions or if I can help with anything in the meantime Here are some articles about us that might be interesting: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...world-let-s-you-bet-on-anything?sref=gl6hqPlO https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-to-bet-millions-on-real-events?sref=gl6hqPlO https://www.wsj.com/articles/online...estors-bet-on-yes-or-no-questions-11613557800 https://www.institutionalinvestor.c...-Citadel-Now-They-Want-to-Democratize-Hedging
IS there a trading depth Dom trader? and what is the fee for the $1 contracts and how do we know your company or a company owned by you is not the counterparty? Like Nadex is owned by IG and major market Maker on Nadex seems to be owned by IG, whereas CMe is a true exchange
Here's the thing: As much as I appreciate product innovation, trading events is a dead end. I've tried various platforms for retail and institutionals over the last 20 years and there were many...offshore, regulated, US, EU, you name it. There is even an crypto event trading platform right now. The most important use case for derivatives is hedging. That's what drives paper and basically feeds every market maker and speculator. Economic events, however, do not affect the outcome directly, so they cannot be used for hedging anything. Let's say the inflation numbers change...or mortage rates go higher or lower, Biden approval rating, yada, yada, yada. These are important economic indicators but how can you hedge your very own mortage rate when it is much more influenced by your credit score, income, location of your property, etc. ? And what do you hedge with Bidens approval rating? So what event betting platforms create is nothing but a casino for arugula and white whine gamblers who consider themselves to be too sophisticated to bet on a simple baseball match. So I'm asking myself why I would spend time and resources to make markets for a betting parlor that limits position size to 7 digits when I can provide liquidity in financial futures where you can support a 100M inventory with 100k margin and massively scale an edge. I'm not trying to sound like an ass here and I really whish you all the success you can get. But from a risk/effort - reward perspective, event markets are simply not worth it. If you want to improve, offer credit default swaps for the public (if that is allowed by regulators). There will be paper/real world use for a CDS on Coinbase
offshore, regulated, US, EU, you name it.. may be they were market maker model where as CME product is True exchange everybody can make a market... Is it not a P to P bet with a possibility to close out same as pto p betting/ trading exchange like betfair! Re If you want to improve, offer credit default swaps for the public idea can you please simplify it for a retail trader
Credit default swaps cannot be accessed by retail as they are traded OTC and an ISDA is necessary to access the interbank derivatives market. But credit default swaps could be useful for retail as well...especially for those who are gambling in microcap low floaters or for people who have their savings with unsecured borrowers/lenders such as Blockfi or other Neo - Banks/brokers (Robin Hood). Wouldn't you want to buy insurance agains a default of these institutes that could possibly ruin your life? I would
so if these CDS are for microcap low floaters who would be the counterparty? and it is a binary event correct? so does XYZ company goes out of business by xyz date? YES or NO so two parties bet against each other! same as event contract of a sort either retail with a pro MM or whatever combo... but for such a thing to get liquidity the underlying asset has to be "Interesting enough" ..
I posted this in options .... repeating it here since we are discussing event contracts here Is anybody using CME Event Contracts for hedging purposes? Here is one usage I thought of,, can experienced traders analyze and suggest the pitfalls/ risk rewards/ and any alternatives Assumptions: Trader wants to go long Micro ES so, ( ignoring commissions) Buy to open 1 MES ATM weekly Option on last day of expiry @ 7 points x $5 = -$35 Buy 4 x CME ATM Event Contract "NO " @ $11 x 4 = -$44 MES closes 20 points Down from Strike of option Loss on Option = -35 Profit on EV = 4x ( 20-11) = +36 Overall = +$1 ? MES closes 20 points UP from Strike of option Profit on Option = (20x$5) /2 = $50 ( assuming delta is still 0.5) not sure at what point the Delta increases Loss on EV = 4x ( 20-11) = -36 Overall = +$14? MES closes only 1 points UP from Strike of option Profit on Option = (1x$5) /2 = $0.5( assuming delta is still 0.5) not sure at what point the Delta increases Loss on EV = 4x ( 20-11) = -36 Overall = -35.5?
What are the payout rules on the Core CPI? Does the ">0.1" binary payout at >0.11 or does it require a figure of >0.2? If the latter that's not clear in the rules.
Per Luana in email: "We use the single digit decimal reported by the BLS. If it is 0.14 the BLS will round down to 0.1, so >0.1 would settle to NO. If it's 0.16 it would be round to 2, and >0.1 would settle to YES." Me: be aware that the hook is on the 0.05 figure (0.05, 0.15, 0.25) etc. I had assumed any figure between 0.1 and 0.2 would pay on the ">0.1" binary.
Also be careful with funding as it sent my ACH deposit 4X. They are having issues so perhaps start with a small test deposit. You'll know within 30 seconds.