How are you currently playing high impact events like FOMC decisions, CPI prints, debt ceiling, etc.? My name is Tarek Mansour and I am the CEO and founder of Kalshi. Backed by Charles Schwab, and Sequoia Capital, Kalshi is the first US federally regulated exchange that allows traders to trade directly on the outcome of events, through an asset class called event contracts. Kalshi’s CFTC approval unlocked the ability to commoditize almost anything intro tradable instruments from Covid numbers to whether a bill will pass in Congress, broadening the historical definition of what a commodity derivative is and paving the way for the futures market to catch up to all the novel risks facing the economy today. You can currently trade on a broad range of events on Kalshi, including FOMC decisions, inflation, daily weather, financial indices, commodities, climate change, COVID, SCOTUS decisions, TikTok Ban, and more. You can trade through our app (iOS or android), website, or API. The simple idea behind event contracts came about during my time at Goldman Sachs in 2016. At the time, clients were looking to get direct exposure to Brexit and the 2016 US elections. Our desk would structure and sell complex financial bundles that included options, swaps, and a number of other instruments. However, these products have a clear problem: they are proxies and thus imprecise. Also, they're super expensive (we were charging 40% premiums to some of these counterparties). Event contracts are (imo) elegant trading instruments because they allow traders to get direct exposure to the event itself, rather than trading on the market reaction to the event and trying to figure out what's priced in or not. One of our most successful markets today is one about FOMC decisions: it allows you to trade all 2023 meetings directly. You can trade FED meetings directly or play the curve (flatteners, steepeners) or hedge the residual risk that the FED is presenting to your portfolio.
I don't see the rate being raised further especially with what's happening in the banking sector but of course that depends on what the CPI numbers show. If CPI numbers stay the same or even go down, then the Fed would be more inclined to hold the rate steady but if there is any increase in the CPI numbers, then I think Powell will raise the rate to 5.25%. Fed is supposed to be an independent institution but I am sure it gets lobbied and influenced just like any other US governmental agencies, organizations, institutions and etc.
Can end users create events to be traded? Can the events be anything? Sports, weather, coin toss,... How do you prevent insider trading?
Yes you can suggest markets. Markets need to fall within the bounds of what we're allowed to regulatory wise (needs to have economic purpose). Insider trading: like NYSE, CME, etc. we have surveillance systems and an investigation department. We run the same heuristics and rules as any of the major exchanges out there. You can find more about this in our rulebook: https://kalshi.com/regulatory/rulebook
Who provides liquidity? How wide is the market or are there fees? Max $size the exchange will accept?
Will Joe Biden finish out his current term?? Will Israel bomb Iran?? Will there be a peace accord between Russia and The Ukraine?? Some type of protection against super inflation... That last one I am interested in and would love to talk further about how it could be structured!!
How is it backed by Schwab?? How can you prove the other side has the assets in place to fulfill their commitment/contract?? Thinking FTX... Will the other side put money in escrow/trust account to complete their transaction?? 50 years ago my dad told me "never contract with someone who has nothing to lose"!! How can you prove they are real on the other side? Will Schwab back the other side, if they lose the contract and default or go bankrupt?? Can you show me a link to trading the CPI for a year or two years?? Which index would you use...Including energy or not?? How are disputes resolved...
Hey, I called the 646-995-0104 number. No name of the company...The mailbox was full!! Do I even bother to call Schwab...What would they say about you?? It sounds cool...But now a little fishy. Baron, have you done your due diligence on this company??
I'm sorry this is my personal number and I was in a meeting when you probaly called. If you want to call back I'd love to chat. Here are a few articles about us where you can find more info: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...world-let-s-you-bet-on-anything?sref=gl6hqPlO https://www.wsj.com/articles/online...estors-bet-on-yes-or-no-questions-11613557800 https://www.institutionalinvestor.c...-Citadel-Now-They-Want-to-Democratize-Hedging https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-to-bet-millions-on-real-events?sref=gl6hqPlO https://www.economist.com/finance-a...9/will-prediction-markets-live-up-to-the-hype