%% LOL/amazing how truth can help................................................................... AS far as a profitable pattern/ up/trending bull market can help. BUT a problem with that uptrending profit = as they say in Chicago= the smarter you are , the longer it takes.
True. If you pick a period with a strong bull market (the last 13 years in stocks, the last 5 years in cryptos, etc.), I'm sure someone can show harmonics "work," especially if they use leverage. What's needed is long-term performance through bull, bear and sideways markets.
It begins with studying your opportunities. For an elite trader, this means reading lots of journals to stay abreast on research and to know what information the market is incorporating. Here is a good example: gr3.pdf (stanford.edu) The next thing to do is determine what type of trade's you want to focus on. Hypothetically, let's assume that you decide to trade intraday momentum. The stocks with the greatest opportunities are seeing a surge in volume and/or price, so that's how you would identify a candidate. How do you time your entry and exit? Well the thesis on this type of trade is that autocorrelation will persist for some time through the day, so your entry/exit is established by the persistence of a trend in the direction of the rate of change (momentum). Somethings to know first about the trading profile of a stock: 1. Most trading activity happens in the morning or near close -- so volume and price are a stronger signal at those times. After that, and during periods of low volatility, stock prices exhibit the tendency to mean revert (as orders bounce between limits). 2. First 30 min return can somewhat predict the return of the last 30 min -- so if a stock has rallied a lot in the first 30 min of trading, you will know to be ready to adjust your positions by the last hour of trading. Going back to intraday reversals, you first need to screen for stocks that meet your criteria (big price/volume moves). Then, you need to analyze momentum in the period you are trading (e.g. 5 min). When momentum is accelerating, you buy. When it decelerates, you sell. That's the "technical" part of the trade. The other part of it is due diligence to review what is driving volume/price. You need to have a view on the information ("new product released" or "company presentation showing improving revenue" or "JPM revises price target lower") and will want to hedge out other types of risks. You should do this first before you put risk on. For entrys/exits: 1- ROC -- you're trading autocorrelation, so when ROC crosses zero, that's when you cover your trade and go opposite Example: ROC rising --> buy; ROC decreasing --> do nothing/reduce position; ROC cross below 0 --> exit and start shorting. There's no magic timeframe. 2- Volume with average volume at time helps you see the path of volume you can expect through the day -- remember, lower volume means less information, which means a weaker trend and more exposure to mean reversion in prices (prices are fluctuating randomly) 3 - price chart -- don't worry about this, patterns in the price chart itself are not useful You can automate this trade, which means the return you are getting from this trade is driven by the risk you are taking (high risk of price crash in opposite direction). For small traders, this is where having a stop loss will help (set it to the price equal to where your loss is 2% of capital deployed). E.g. if the stock is trading at 10 and you risk $2k, your stop loss is $9.80. You are not betting against momentum, you are betting with it. Keep it simple and start with 1 position. Don't overcomplicate it. If you need more indicators of momentum then figure out better ways to analyze rate of change (but frankly, that's all you need). Once you get more experience, you can start to run a portfolio that is more systematic (capturing intraday autocorrelation, liquidity premias, and 30 min open/close trades). NOTE: trading autocorrelation does not work well if the stock is very volatile, as you’ll continuously get stopped out. In such cases, you should reduce size substantially and try to “pick” tops and bottoms (small buy at 1std, add at 2std, close if trade keeps going against you).
Not to mention poor enough grammar (not even 3rd grade level) and a whole lot of .... nothing verified. edit: Nothing verified pro or con. Same goes for those bashing - no results either way.
%% Exactly. And with uptrend bull/ downtrend bear, sideways slop,chop market; that just covered ALL the moves. Harmonics,HUH?? I would rather see SPY in harmony with NQ/QQQ but really dont need them in harmony/LOL. Its not rocket science, but we could complicate it even more for marketing/LOL, AS far as ''his bold oil prediction to $100''; its not about prediction @ all. Its called weather forecasting// not prediction...................................................................................
Is it a coincidence Scott Carney and Scott Warner's names are identical except for two letters and both teach market geometrical gibberish with no track record? You can find the Scott Warner thread (someone selling his "bargain" books for hundred$) near the top of today's posts.
So, after all THAT it STILL boils down to: What triggers a buy or a sell to open? What triggers an exit? How do you size your trades? So Glue That to Your Monitor Bezel And Heed It. or not, Somebody's gotta donate after all; correct? What would you say belongs in a solid trading plan? A big tip of the hat goes to Robert Morse https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...solid-trading-plan.340340/page-4#post-5031706
yep agree. will look at that thread, as it's actually useful to me. There's a reason why I don't trade harmonic patterns myself. It's kind of intriguing, and I've found some patterns to have worked, but it's never been something I've used to carry too much weight. I only posted to see what other serious traders think of it. Maybe it works for a select few who trade it a lot, but vast majority of people I've asked the question make fun of it. oh well
That's Ok, it's a free country. It's how you work it baby, like VWAP, some work it better than others. ymmv, for better or for worse. HOW DARE THEY! Get your hanky Gretta