i use moving averages to represent very short term time frame [3,8] ,short term time frame[20] medium term term[50] longer term [100,200].
I did much of this in my youth, reinventing moving averages, just a waste of time. I use slope as well for direction on a SMA 125 for half of signals I employ on one minute bars, I need the "lag" so as not to have too many early signals that are often in chop. That's is not to say I don't love chop as I do extremely well in chop, but I blended both a scalping system with a day trading system so I can have some homerun profits instead of just 1-8 ticks in ES and keep losing percentages very low thereby keeping intra-day drawdowns low. Indicators that have less lag are prone for over trading and losses that don't need to be taken. But it you want faster, check out Hull moving averages, it turns on a dime. I, also, use a faster SMA for more of scalping but this only requires a bar's range completely above the SMA for definition of trend, John Hill wrote about it and calling it a "thrust" bar as it thrusts out of an area of chop or "controlled range". Once there is thrust bar beyond an SMA, most of the time will be a reversion back to the mean, whatever SMA one is using or called the "dip". Upon you can do a breakout of lowest high or delayed breakout of waiting for the breakout and then apply limit order at so many ticks at better price, this reduces your overall profits HOWEVER it reduces your risk, so if you were to enter half back which means 50% between the original breakout price and where your protective stop is, on trades where they stall, you would exit at the original entry price and make something on a breakeven trade and be risking half as much. But you do lose out often on trades that never come back. Since I average down on every trade, no point in me doing this, but it is another way to show you can make coin on breakeven trades and only risk few ticks in the ES or forex. As much as you say your method is simple, it is far from simple and you just fooling yourself and not doing any favor for towards new traders. You write that you declined signal which is risk management and how many newbies know anything about what a correction is or isn't. And this is why it takes so long to understand price action. You wrote you been studying price action ten years, well you have ten years more than beginners and you should be able to read charts extremely well, this my friend takes "time". And I have never seen a "simple system" or for that matter any system do 100%, even one of your sim tests showed losses, but at least you wrote you are scalping which in my book the hardest way to make coin, but very rewarding to become decent at it. Good trading all. Greed is good.
simple not easy.... reading charts is one thing, but the market,once in a way, does some things,it is not supposed to: we just have to shrug it off as a cost of doing business greed is never good, but hunger to succeed is good. yes i should not be telling newbies it is simple or easy.point taken. how many of us would have continued trading if we knew at the outset that it would take 15 years just to learn the alphabets of trading? it is possible to make a little money but not a lot because no one is going to lose a lot of money
I have met all kinds of people and most should have NEVER ventured into day trading, including myself, I was doing extremely well doing stocks before I ventured into futures in the 1980s of long term and day trading, seven years of losing as futures to me made no sense and had different personality than stocks. I have known guys losing over 2 million dollars day trading and only when they had to sell their houses cause of pending divorce do they stop. Does one call this gambling addiction or their need to overcome the 95%? I lost over 100k(most were gains from stocks) and lost my mind as I saw it back then. And why did I continue? Till then I found life very easy and never failed at anything I tried before. The 8th full year had turned the corner and made up all the losses and turned the corner, but not without knowing how down deep in mental anguish one can go. Greed is good and those who say different, don't have enough in their account yet. Being a Hog is bad though as Hogs get slaughtered. Since price is our dictator, it does what it is supposed to do and we adapt by doing back testing is my belief, we are all different, thankfully, or we would not have this fine forum to use as well are waiting for something. Make some coin "traderGood".
yes i have experienced losses of 100000 usd that is why i am trading as a hobby with 10 usd which i lose eventually i have no clue when to take profit or where to put stop i am the worst trader
thanks i should change my name to tradergood.... yes we both have experienced it all you have a big heart... trade well trade carefully trade joyfully just saw your age 28 i am 61!
I am trading forward a system I backtested on tick data going back 14 years, so I have over 150k signals, have over 100 different stats, so after I develop, back test, then sent to my partner who programs it in different languages, then we spend another 3 months after fixing code, then run to 3 months and when it gives what I suspect, then we let it fly on private hedge fund we are starting on Dec 1, this is the 2nd system I have developed. Partner is still working on first one for past 18 months, that one very complicated because it not only the system itself but units of risk management, cycle management, which when completed be used in any timeframe or symbol, etc, any new business takes time. 99% of my trading is in retirement funds, I as well started as a hobby, it was like never enough hours to study in beginning and I do study much more now as except for recent trading, all automated. I have learned from recent manual trading I need to do some as taken a couple weeks to catch up on nuances. If you would by the hour calculate swing distances from Highs/Lows like in Elliott wave then waves(pullbacks) and get 5 day average, so when you enter, you can tell how low from this average is to formulate best protective stops, so it is all about how low can you enter to lower risk if you want to play it tight, in my case for programming I use over $200 and it expands during lunch as light volume can push price further in the Indexes. I seldom day trade forex for now with exception of long term as it saves on fees, but all hedged at different times. You can use MAE/MFE to also figure out profits and stops, try to keep 90%. I am not 28, LOL nor do I wish, I am 61yo as well.
Lol, I'll have to start calling you "Mr. Statistically Significant". And vice-versa, from me: we can perhaps agree that these are the two best ages, for traders, anyway ...
you are 61:welcome to my territory! nice write up automated trading seems like the way to go: make money in your sleep....but i trade for fun to keep busy ,so that i can post in forums:since i cannot make money and love to trade i have to think of other reasons to continue trading