It's very interesting to now look back on the above mentioned thread. Thorn called top on <b>May 11, 2006!</b> <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1222100> Thorn shared this brilliantly accurate call with the ET community, while asking nothing in return. Yet, look at all the scornful reactions posted by members of the envious loser brigade. They were given the perfect market call- and yet they responded with a barrage of harassment and personal insults. Go figure...
It probably has something to do with the 15 top calls he F*^&ed up on before he finally got it right. This one was a nice call though, ill give him that
<b>Thorn</b>, back in my index option days, predicting future market action seemed a necessity. As a pure intraday trader, it is 1,000% irrelevant. Having a bias or expectation as a day-trader is no asset at all... it's a huge liability. Too many emini traders far smarter than me <i>felt</i> or <i>believed</i> price action should = would go down today. When price action started pushing upward, the masses tried selling into each swing. How do we know that? The size of those big green candles, fueled by eating massive buy-stop orders alive is our visual proof. Those of us without any bias or expectation read the charts objectively = correctly, kept buying every pull back and enjoyed one helluva day. So it will go, many more times until 12/31/2006 * Market bias and expectation may be alluring to all and valuable to some, but for pure intraday traders it is an albatross. Hopefully, everyone recognizes that pure distinction. Best Trading Wishes, Austin
Before anyone starts in this is not a trading call at all, I trade what i see and try not to be anticipatory but watching this today i had a semi-epiphany. Will it make me money? I doubt it but here are my thoughts... It actually dawned on me today that the market really CAN be manipulated for short times. Despite what alot of other people see as rocky underpinnings the jam job in full force. I mean c'mon, it started in august, Goldman re-jiggers the commodity index and drops gasoline's percentage causing 6 bill in gasoline contracts to be dumped on the market. In a chain reaction every commodity collapses taking a few funds with it (don't kid yourself, Amarath is the tip of the iceberg). The yield curve inverts like its 2001 and the bond market starts signalling hard landing. Instead of following every other asset class into deflation the market fucking explodes like p/e's are actually going to EXPAND into this part of the cycle. Risk aversion goes completely out the window as the narrowest index on earth makes headline highs while nothing else does. All this right before a midterm election that the Rep's pretty much need to win AND 3 mos before bonus time when everybody has been sucking wind all year. I'm not saying there is outright collusion, but when they want a certain result there are enough like minded funds out there with enough money to manufacture performance when they need to. I have no idea how long it can last but I have no doubts that all this is going to matter when it matters and it's gonna be ugly again when they all try and get out the same door.
As opposed to being a registered expert since April with over 400 posts......LOL One wonders if you even have time to watch the markets let alone trade them between all that posting. Legend in your own mind eh? Brilliant call, what a dumb tosser.
Uhh, excuse? I think you're confusing me with bozente, who made something like 10 horrendous bottom calls as the market slid. As far as my "top calls", show me any where I f*^%ed up. It's easy to hide on the internet and throw lies around, be a man for once in your life and offer proof.
I guess for the same reason the envious loser brigade is out in full force on Pabst. RM, you know more than me about psychology, is there a name for pathetic losers who have failed in their lives getting a thrill on an anonymous message board when a distinguished person like Pabst makes a mistake? Anyway, thank you for the kind words. They're meaningful to me since they are coming from one of the very, very few people on ET whom I respect.
<b>Thorn</b>, with all due respect to you and <b>Pabst</b> on this specific issue, what type of public reaction did anyone expect? Someone posts an absolute bet and backs it up with a personal guarantee. The bet loses, human behavior waits to see what code of honor is followed. A samurai warrior might fall on his sword for less than that. A Lakota warrior would be humiliated in public, then welcomed back to the tribe. Someone on a message board is free to do as they see fit. I have no dog in the hunt here, and Lord knows I've handled my share of adverse posts. Suits me fine if Pabst acts like nothing ever happened, because in all reality, nothing of consequence happened. * Here's the tragic part everyone seems to have overlooked: Pabst states he sat on a five-lot of ES contracts for days, pondered hedging them off in some complex manner, rolled up new shorts in "scaled" (Can't Lose Trading Commodities) fashion and all manner of long-side avoidance. Would the end result for everyone involved been a whole lot happier without any market bias to marry? Had Pabst simply stopped out on the shorts and gotten long a few times today with that exact-same five lot, he'd be enjoying several grand $$$ more in his account than what resides there tonight. I'm objective here as the day is long. It appears to me like one big pissing contest to pass time between bored traders. Meanwhile, the ES goes +19.25pts straight up in the air with four distinct pullbacks to buy for good measure. Did anyone miss anything along the way here? Best Trading Wishes To All Austin P
The most fitting words that come to mind: Marxism, Egalitarianism, Schadenfreude, and Nihilism. Anyone have a better word for it? Those who become disturbed and angry by the very sight of successful people... are the most wretched losers of all.
well i cant say im trading... since my time frame and outlook are so long now... i did wait to get in on the perfect time to go long with all my $$.... it was perfect! I am very good on long time frames.... and have a keen sense when major turning points are about to happen. Obviously for this i dont just use charts, but also incorporate geo political, business and economic cycles..... things that dont matter when trading on a daily basis. Although I stand by my call and the reasons why as stated in the other thread... I think 1400 by years end is a coin toss... simply because i expect pull backs... even if we do reach 1400 way before the end of the year. My long term out look is: MOOOoooooooo (bullish)