I wish it was as simple as that, but unfortunately not so. VIX tends to go lower as markets sits in one place or tends to creep up. VIX is a measure of implied uncertainty (right or wrong - it's what it is), not a simple inverse relationship of stock prices. If the markets are doubling from here (in what time frame? 3 / 6 / 12 / 24+ months?), and VIX is at half of what it is now, I will just buy boat loads of options and be very rich. "They" would have to sell the options super cheap as you know, VIX is in the toilet
VIX is widely known to have a mean reverting aspect to it. You can think of it like a rubber band, the higher it gets the more forces pulling it down and the lower it goes the more forces pushing it up. It can never go to zero because that would imply that there will be absolutely no movement in the market. It also has a theoretical upper bound because then that would mean that prices are jumping all over the place.
The time before that, VIX dropped another 40% and markets continued grinding upwards. No matter what happens next, "history" will repeat.
for the record, I am long ewz and gld. I just can't see how I can win but I don't trade emotions fortunately.
another point I was making is that the VIX is miscalculated as there is no vol on the weekend so it drops on Friday and rallies Monday. That we have merger Monday madness makes this worse...
Looks a Tad low ...I'm guessing sideways using weekly timeframe..it could remain stubbornly low although its looking like an oversold item in the near future. I suspect a rounding bottom on the horizon...how much stimulus is left ?