Discussion in 'Trading' started by noddyboy, Mar 5, 2010.
VIX is at 17.43 expecting another Monday rally.
Perhaps my problem is that I can't see how the VIX can go lower, and hence how the markets can go higher...
when the vix is low, it's time to go.
I would certainly consider that a problem since it is a readily-demonstrated historical fact that VIX has spent long stretches of time at levels far lower than these
I am guessing this is actually the start of the next phase of the selloff in the VIX and gains in the market.
The last real technical crash in 72-74 showed the same movement and at around this point in the rally in previous it jumped quite a percentage (stock market).
VIX most likely IMO gets under 12 again within this year and after that just meanders around in a choppy market.
I remember it trading near 10 for years, just bopping around as the Dow hit 14000
It's an integral (or derivative or whatever) relationship.
As the market approaches infinity, VIX approaches zero.
If the market doubled from here, VIX would be cut in half. If the market went up 10x, Vix would be a tenth of what it is now.
last time VIX hit multi-year low (in mid-Jan) the market started a prompt dump a week later. we have not breached that low on VIX yet but we are have come very close. so if history repeats itself than a major dump is just around the corner.
Contrary to "common knowledge" - the VIX does NOT measure volatility in the market. The VIX measures purchases of some options which "should" be a measure of volatility in the market. That knowledge in hand...the VIX is being ignored these days. The "market" is TOTALLY manipulated these days. Read up on the PPT (aka "Plunge Protection Team" aka "President's Working Group on Financial Markets"). The PPT plays with FUTURES to manipulate the markets. They do NOT play with options to do their manipulations. In the "old" days...some "players" used to play the VIX in relation to where they thought the market was going. Nowadays the "players" are gone...because the market goes where government manipulation "tells" it to go - UP!!! This fucking horseshit will continue until the US government collapses (shortly) because it has created an atmosphere devoid of trust in "markets." We will now here from either evil assholes who deny the manipulations of the PPT or we will hear from dumb fucks not smart enough to see the manipulations of the PPT. Please see my previous post that PROVED manipulations in the currency markets -> http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2209106&#post2209106 Check out the link at the top of that thread - the New York Fed admitted to playing in currency markets.
WOW !! Dow 14000 here we come !!
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