I find myself very tired and am glad the weekend is here. Today saw a 1.5% gain, but this has been a tough month so far. http://www.electricsavant.com/Spreader Results.xls
You people need to learn to ring the freakin' register. You aren't going to get rich making 2 good trades. You're going to get rich hitting a ton of singles and allowing yourself to play with the house's money on bigger size.
We have now made 357 trades in 66 days. I can safely say this system works. And the hard work of execution continues. When your able to make mistakes and still complete the trade with profit is what an edge needs to be. Scooping every last bit of pips out of the market seems to be the plateau to break into. But how? The trades I make are generally not getting near what they can get. I am taking a scoop out of shopping baskets full of pips with a thimble. Michael B.
Well it is improving. I believe we can make $14.60 per hour or 7k per 100k per month. But yes improvement must be made. Naturally if we were trading 1 million this would change much. Just now... consistency and a track record is being built for greater days to come. The fact that this was a hard time for many Retail Spot Forex traders recently, when we did not experience any difference what-so-ever is encouraging. Michael B.
You know...when "arbing something in" you are trading a riskless system. It always comes back...hundreds of times so far.... It's that one time that will getcha...I am waiting for you....Is this that Black swan thingy? Michael B.
To understand Black Swan, you need to understand how things are priced as a derivative of thier percieved (calculated) probability of occuring. The reason that Black Swan is such an achilles heel in the options market is because far OTM options are priced in such a way so the seller of the option(s), in order to make a decent return, must sell a ton of them. And if pricing a highly improbable event is tantamount to pricing a highly probable event (as the market tends toward extremes), then the entire risk/reward calculation of the far OTM options seller is skewed toward highly negative expectancy.
Would the "Black Swan event" thus prove to all the "market is random foolishness crowd", that they are wrong? (as the market tends toward extremes)
You know, since I started scalping, spreading and arbing, I realize how much I really do not know about trading. Shorter time frames are really a different cycle. We are still surviving and the live account had a slow first two weeks (but I am thankful for that time, as I was pushed to discovered some errors and enhancments). I discovered some really stupid formula problems that were hidden in the 100k test and added some routines to account for smaller trade size. Also, shorter times frames must be calibrated so to speak to keep current with what volatility presents. This adjustment must be on a trade by trade basis and not overfit to history. During all these growing pains we have not suffered one losing day, and I attribute this to our experience. I do not know how a new trader could ever understand enough to attemp to scalp. I admit that I am knowledgable, but scalping is rather challenging. Michael B.