In the past month: 32K on GOOG earnings 25K (so far on CSCO, 16/17 long strangle) 8K on AAPL earns "only" 1K on SPY 131/132 strangle, closed 8/2, would be up a lot more if still on Overall up 65K on 500K account in about a month. Too bad it was all paper trades.
With paper trades, it very easy to ride out (or ignore) the draw downs. Real money can have an emotional context
You'll find that your ability to predict the future will decline drastically once you're using real money.
Oh well. If it was real money I would have (I hope) closed out the CSCO strangle at +35K yesterday, instead of -1K today.
Touche. When real money is on the line traders/investors/etc start to act irrationally *gasp* and usually make some rash decisions. Papermoney is great for testing out a strategy and/or seeing how a product works. But I'd be wary of anyone saying he/she can replicate their paper money returns, unless of course, it's a trading "system" they're simulating.
The greeks have nothing to do with predicting direction. They simply indicate the current position's risks and rewards potential with high accuracy.
Long strangles have low winning percentages. They do have their potential around earnings season however.
I was playing around with going long straddles/strangles on high-flying stocks like GOOG and AAPL a week or two before earnings, before the IV jumped. If the stock really moved before earns then just go ahead and sell, otherwise sell a further out strangle a few days before earns when IV is higher.