It's spew like yours that keeps me from ever posting anything about trading... well, hardly ever. I doubt your hard-on for sentiment will ever make you a dime.
A question was asked and answered incorrectly. Your insecurity speaks volumes . . . Big egos NEVER make money trading . . . but thanks for playing.
Well, both Gnome and Landis make reasonable points. But the bottom line is that deviations from fair-value in SP are small and fleeting, and devoured by an infinitude of arbs. Whereas in physical commodities (grains, animals, oil, metals & etc) there are sometimes large, persistent deviations from carry value because of short-term shortages or surpluses that the market "expects" will correct themselves. At times, some physical commods have traded 50% higher in price front-contract as versus next-contract. And a similar phenomenon can happen in individual stocks (PALM during the tech bubble was a celebrated example -- in this case its "futures" price could be observed by looking at its options) because of technical issues.
Thx alot landis i appreciate your reply, i guess its like everything else in the stock market where there will nevere be an XYZ formula to come up with what the difference shoud be, i was just trying to understand it a little better it really doesnt apply to me as i just watch the chart, and trade stocks, i just was always curious about it.