"this run cant last forever" No it can't, but it can last a hell of a lot longer than the average bear's PnL.
yes. the market can remain irrational longer than a trader with an opinion can remain solvent buy panic, when it happens, and sell euphoria but stop trying to pick tops
I just bought Nissan Motor, and I'm very bearish. Timing is everything. Look at Nissan's ugly-ass chart. Then look at their fundamentals. I love it. Wish me luck, and hope I don't need it.
Not an accident that DOW hits high as dollar hits lows. Several month ago I predicted DOW near 15000, based entirely on the decline of the dollar (DOW is measured in dollars. Obviously as they lose real value, it takes more of them to buy the DOW) The rate of decline of the dollar seems to be accelerating. -perhaps I was too cautious - DOW at 16000 in early 2008 may be more realistic if dollar slide continues at the present rate.
Despite of the appearance, the stocks are still undervalued based on the historical forward earnings yield, as well as the differential between that yield and the 10-year bond yield. The parity between the two will occur at S&P of around 1650 or the bond yield of about 200 basis points higher.
If the market decides that it is going green on cars in a big way, Nissan is going to get clobbered because Toyota and Honda are waaaaaaaaaaaaaay ahead of Nissan on fuel efficiency. Note I said fuel efficiency, not hybrid cars, in which the lead is even worse. Of course, the price of Nissan stock may already reflect that information. nitro
That is a logical target. Imo, the SP and the bonds meet somewhere in between in yield parity, with the FED raising once or thrice more with a FFF at about 6 and ES at about 1550 (based on M7 contract). nitro
Nissan has some magic coming. The facts that the M35/45 is Consumer Reports top rated sedan, beating out BMWs and Mercedes costing 2.5x as much, that the Infinity line in general is doing quite well, that their new compact is selling extremely well in Europe, and that they have a major product pipeline revision in the works under Ghosn, all lead to me to extreme bullishness. The BOJ will keep the yen devalued, helping Japan's exporters. By the way, the Hybrid Altima gets 56% better fuel economy than the standard one, and better mileage than the hybrid Honda Accord. " Nissan (NSANY) began selling its first hybrid vehicle , the 2007 Altima Hybrid, in late January. The vehicle is assembled in Tennessee and is available in the eight states that have adopted California emissions regulations: California, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price for the Altima Hybrid is $24,400, and it also qualifies for a federal tax credit of $2,350. The hybrid vehicle is estimated to achieve 42 miles per gallon [mpg] in city driving and 36 mpg on the highway, for a combined fuel economy rating of 39 mpg." http://transport.seekingalpha.com/article/27133