There have been quite a few people calling for a sell off because they believe the economy is headed for disaster. As an individual trader, it is an exercise in futility to try and make money by predicting economic conditions. When we do encounter the inevitable decline, there will be plenty of opportunities to make money from the short side, with much less frustration. That being said, I'm just a daytrader, so I don't have to worry where the market is headed in any time frame longer than a couple of hours.
The problem here that news are mostly bad and the country clearly heading to resession. The rally was ignited by possibility of rates cut although these possibility faded out. And still market rallies without news or on bad news, let's see today oil is up, consumer sentiment down and nasdaq is up and Dow will be up by the end of day. You can say CSCO beat. Yes it's good news. But 80% of companies beat - it means only one thing - analysts are not quilified or there is something why they give forecasts this way By my nature and physicology I can't go long but I still can find what to short every day and I'm very happy with this growth because eventually all those pigs who fly now will be my clients
Yes. Most of us are not playing the market - we are playing the players. Until those players start selling, it is futile to act based upon our view of economic conditions alone. There is much more money to be made by piggy-backing the players than by trying to front-run them. Just my .02, of course.
Why do you keep trying to rationalize everything. The day I quit analyzing the fundamentals, and deferred to the price action is the day I started making money. If the move in a specific trading instrument does not make any sense, it is an indication in the short term that you are on the wrong side.