VIX at new lows, dollar cascading lower, economy not rebounding, ...yada yada yada... Yet I see many individual stocks that have broken out off beautiful bases on this last rally. ...so once we reach the 15% or so like past rallies, will this rally be any different than all the other bear market rallies?
unless your angle is reaping a huge profit, then these markets have changed for the worse... the method to trade these markets has changed negatively also.... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=16614
This is a result of the bear market. No surprise. Question is - is the market now, for the most part, starting to consolidate for a push higher which hasn't occured yet in thie bear market (because all the rallies so far have been merely oversold rallies)?
I think there is actually some new money flowing into the markets. We most definitely are in an intermediate term uptrend that started in March, no way of telling how long it will last. I am 70% long, 30% cash, 0% short, but looking for short candidates at the same time.
I like to look at the number of issues that have 5 year histories of 20% growth in eps and most recent quarter eps 50% over same quarter a year ago. There were as many as 350 or so of them during the bubble, as few as 15 or so a couple of years back and now the number is 230. If that is any indication then the economy is muddling along, the market is ok, and obviously, traders have had to ajust with the rapidly changing markets in the last few years. It seems like we are out of the period of ajustment, things might continue as they are for a while. If you have not ajusted by now then you probably aren't trading any more!! I don't have access to historical fundamental data and can't check it out but I wonder if that Canslim criteria might not be a pretty good indicator of what kind of market we are in?? Max