This looks like a nice setup for the next leg down

Discussion in 'Trading' started by BlueStreek, Mar 23, 2007.

  1. 1) Look at all the commodites

    a) you can employ the global growth argument

    b) looks like one hell of an inflationary hedge

    I go with b as the fundamentals haven`t changed that much in a month.

    2) Fed needs to cut to prevent the subprime mess from spreading via contagion effect into other areas of lending, banking, and the overall economy.

    a) This is good in providing more liquidity for all markets, including financial.

    b) This just adds more fuel for the recent uptick in inflation metrics like rising PPI & CPI over the last 2 months.

    I go with B as we already have too much cheap money chasing too few goods as food, energy, healthcare, etc. seem to be going higher over the next 3 months.

    3) Going into weaker historical months for the markets, and corporate profits seem to be slowing.

    a) It will be different this time, you don`t "sell in May and go away!"

    b) See last year with rising commodity prices, we sold off strong!

    I again will take b as the financial markers are highly cyclical in nature, and routinely, May is a weaker month for bullish sentiment as compared with January.

    Ergo, this looks like a case of establishing lower highs, and makes for the perfect setup for positioning yourself properly for the next leg down. As in May we will be much lower than current levels according to my analysis.
  2. rcj


    Blue !!! thought you had gone away.

    This may be a quiet thread for awhile(hope not)
    Lot of the guys are over at one of the Puretick threads chewing away at Spectra(et al). Getting "interesting"

    ... rj
  3. hels02


    Are you shorting Blue?
  4. MattF


    S&P tried but couldn't seriously rally through a new high a downtrade is probably expected but not drastically...maybe around 15 points though..