This is why the BirthsDeaths of employment report is rubbish

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Digs, Nov 20, 2007.

  1. Digs


    The USA employmemt numbers from the BLS cant be trusted at economic turning points. Just when there needed the most.

    ..."The most significant potential drawback to this or any model-based approach is that time series modeling assumes a predictable continuation of historical patterns and relationships and therefore is likely to have some difficulty producing reliable estimates at economic turning points or during periods when there are sudden changes in trend. BLS will continue researching alternative model-based techniques for the net birth/death component; it is likely to remain as the most problematic part of the estimation process. "...