I just left a board meeting an hour ago and let me tell you it ain't pretty. So yes go all in leveraged up to your gills. I myself am very defensive. DBV POWERSHARES DB G10 Short-term trades Metals and metal miners Money Markets and of course any other goodies that pop up.
I bought a whole bunch of EWJ puts for cheap. Japan is highly dependant on a strong US economy. Their exporters will be really feeling it if people stop spending due to whatever factors end up tightening the small fortune americans spend yearly on their handycams, Toyota cars and Sony playstations and stuff.
If nearly half the world is expecting a tremendous bear run and nearly half the world is expecting a tremendous bull run, the wise man expects neither. -Raystonn
if you have to be in ressession to find good stocks, you should change your career. there are always 52wk low stocks in a bull market, if you need bargain.
Not dire but sales and contracts are slowing. The question that nobody has the answer: How slow and do we go into a full-blown recession. Interestingly I think "things are different this time." China is the inexpensive manufacturing plant of the US(and elsewhere for that matter). They have been accumulating record amounts of dollars which has had the effect of holding interest rates down. So the inverted yield curve is suspect as to the significance with regard to the recessionary environ. The impact of the housing slowdown and sub-prime fallout is just hitting the economy. Employment, inflation, job growth, and interest rates are low yet much of these numbers are surface numbers. Where is the job growth: Low paying and volatile service sector employment. Inflation worse than reported as the gov has massaged the number. Interest rates low but as mentioned this is artificial as the carry trade yen dollar and chinese accumulation of treasuries has kept rates low. If the chinese start dumping dollars and the carry trade unwinds further I don't see how the FED can lower interest rates. If they raise however due to inflation or to strengthen the weak dollar then the already hard hit housing, mortgage and finance sectors will be clobbered. So my poorly thought out summary is that we are at an interesting crossroads and could end up in a recession which as alluded to appears to be quite probable. If the consumer gets scared as jobs get lost as housing and finance continue to take hits then well I suppose that will be the catalyst in addition to the possible telegraphed selling of US treasuries by the chinese.
The slowing sales trend is easily explainable. If someone believes that there is a chance of a recession in the future, then they wont go out and make new purchases. I believe there is a chance of a recession, but I am not entirely sold on the idea. However, since there is at least a chance, I am less willing to spend and would rather play it safe. Trips to Europe, new purchases of large appliances, new cars, etc. are not on my list until we have more data on the issue.
That's the exact phenom. The question is we're on the slide down so what is going to trigger the consumer to spend? Food, currencies, interest-bearing instruments, metals, metal miners, cash.
So, for clarification, since you obviously have full use of your brain you are now a trillionaire due tosmart investing?