This is what a market bottom looks like

Discussion in 'Trading' started by orbit23, Mar 19, 2020.

  1. Since 2008-2009, this is "rigged" market. If you have at least a 2-year holding period, there seems to be virtually no risk in holding S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 as the fed will do whatever it takes no to support the market.
     
    #111     May 28, 2020
  2. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Got to keep the 0.01 percenters happy. Administration after administration, fed head after fed head. Thems are the real deep state. Not whistle-blowers, inspector generals doing their job or the "fake" news media (well unless talking about billionaire owners, Bezos or Murdoch for instance).
     
    #112     May 28, 2020
  3. Specterx

    Specterx

    Bingo. Now imagine what will happen to index P/E ratios as this "fact" becomes universally accepted by the market, with bonds yielding zero. As a base case we could see SPX and NDX double in the next 3-4 years.

    Look out below if one day the Fed has to actually raise rates.
     
    #113     May 28, 2020
  4. ironchef

    ironchef

    I am listening but I am not buying SPX puts.
     
    #114     May 28, 2020
  5. orbit23

    orbit23

    My reasons would be that only 2 months ago, the world looked as if it was going to collapse, if you mentioned LONG, you would be laughed at and now we are almost at record highs, as if nothing happened at all. Volatility has settled down. "Back to normal" phase, "waiting for the next rally".

    Just like the market has fooled everyone into thinking the world was gonna collapse, the same is happening on the opposite side. FED with it's cheap money will take us to the promised land, corona was just a bad dream.

    I could see something similar playing out on NVDA.
    upload_2020-5-28_23-46-28.png

    The charts don't look that bad though and going against the trend can make one look foolish. Just one dump though, and all of the gains are erased.

    I could be wrong, but this is just basic psychology. Not much of use for the daytraders though :) Just a warning.

    IF we did get downward move and airline stocks made new lows, i would bet heavy on boeing. But this is some heavy forecasting and wishes..we can't know what the market will do.
     
    #115     May 28, 2020