http://www.optionsclearing.com/market/vol_data/2001/daily_sep_01.jsp I have to believe if all those stats were true, they would have also posted the information that is available every day on this site regarding option activity and volume......on a side not...i have been unable to get a selected PUT /CALL analysis for 9-01-....it doesn't go back that far ....which opens up a new set of circumstances
Nothing to do with the discussion, just a pure math remark. Any number like this (A is X times then average ) is meaningless without the standart deviation for the series. The easiest way would have been to look up historical implied vols for that security for that day. Higher volume breeds higher implied vol, since more people want to buy options. I do not trade equity derivatives, so I have no access to this data, does anyone? As for a semi-credible proof , I would look at the underlying prices for these days. The spike in implied vols would have seeped into the underlying (equity) market in the form of higher volume. Was there anything unusual about the volume for these securities? On a more practical note - if i had insider info like that I would just go long on treasuries or , better, treasury options. Flight to quality would have ensured a nice profit.
I do buy into the "conspiracy theory". I don't know about the rest of you, but I can't trade anonymously. Why don't we have an accounting of who bought these options? People assume these were offshore, but were they? Or were they bought here? Why would anyone buy options and bring suspicion on themselves? I think this insider information traveled by word of mouth a lot further than was ever intended (as it usually does), so that the original "investors" who could have remained below the radar were "outed" by the sheer number of contracts (presumably by additional buyers) who piled on. Add the irresistibility of windfall profits and the optimism that they could get away with it, and it's no different than the behavior we see in other insider trading, just a whole lot more reprehensible. The best coverage I've seen comes from a Web site www.fromthewilderness.com that covered this way back in 11/2001; and still today no one has followed up. Just like Bush is trying to block the investigation into 9/11 by Congress over the protestations of the families of the victims, I can only conclude the powers that be don't want this information to see the light of day. Given the powers that be are American, why would they protect the identities of Al Qaeda? I can only assume they are protecting government insiders, connected Americans, or "friends" of America, such as the Saudis. Here's an excerpt from the URL, 2 years old now: http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/oct152001.html ================================= SUPPRESED DETAILS OF CRIMINAL INSIDER TRADING LEAD DIRECTLY INTO THE CIA's HIGHEST RANKS CIA EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR "BUZZY" KRONGARD MANAGED FIRM THAT HANDLED "PUT" OPTIONS ON UAL FTW, October 9, 2001 - Although uniformly ignored by the mainstream U.S. media, there is abundant and clear evidence that a number of transactions in financial markets indicated specific (criminal) foreknowledge of the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. In the case of at least one of these trades -- which has left a $2.5 million prize unclaimed -- the firm used to place the "put options" on United Airlines stock was, until 1998, managed by the man who is now in the number three Executive Director position at the Central Intelligence Agency. Until 1997 A.B. "Buzzy" Krongard had been Chairman of the investment bank A.B. Brown. A.B. Brown was acquired by Banker's Trust in 1997. Krongard then became, as part of the merger, Vice Chairman of Banker's Trust-AB Brown, one of 20 major U.S. banks named by Senator Carl Levin this year as being connected to money laundering. Krongard's last position at Banker's Trust (BT) was to oversee "private client relations." In this capacity he had direct hands-on relations with some of the wealthiest people in the world in a kind of specialized banking operation that has been identified by the U.S. Senate and other investigators as being closely connected to the laundering of drug money. Krongard (re?) joined the CIA in 1998 as counsel to CIA Director George Tenet. He was promoted to CIA Executive Director by President Bush in March of this year. BT was acquired by Deutsche Bank in 1999. The combined firm is the single largest bank in Europe. And, as we shall see, Deutsche Bank played several key roles in events connected to the September 11 attacks. THE SCOPE OF KNOWN INSIDER TRADING Before looking further into these relationships it is necessary to look at the insider trading information that is being ignored by Reuters, The New York Times and other mass media. It is well documented that the CIA has long monitored such trades - in real time - as potential warnings of terrorist attacks and other economic moves contrary to U.S. interests. Previous stories in FTW have specifically highlighted the use of Promis software to monitor such trades. It is necessary to understand only two key financial terms to understand the significance of these trades, "selling short" and "put options". "Selling Short" is the borrowing of stock, selling it at current market prices, but not being required to actually produce the stock for some time. If the stock falls precipitously after the short contract is entered, the seller can then fulfill the contract by buying the stock after the price has fallen and complete the contract at the pre-crash price. These contracts often have a window of as long as four months. "Put Options," are contracts giving the buyer the option to sell stocks at a later date. Purchased at nominal prices of, for example, $1.00 per share, they are sold in blocks of 100 shares. If exercised, they give the holder the option of selling selected stocks at a future date at a price set when the contract is issued. Thus, for an investment of $10,000 it might be possible to tie up 10,000 shares of United or American Airlines at $100 per share, and the seller of the option is then obligated to buy them if the option is executed. If the stock has fallen to $50 when the contract matures, the holder of the option can purchase the shares for $50 and immediately sell them for $100 - regardless of where the market then stands. A call option is the reverse of a put option, which is, in effect, a derivatives bet that the stock price will go up. A September 21 story by the Israeli Herzliyya International Policy Institute for Counterterrorism, entitled "Black Tuesday: The World's Largest Insider Trading Scam?" documented the following trades connected to the September 11 attacks: - "Between September 6 and 7, the Chicago Board Options Exchange saw purchases of 4,744 put options on United Airlines, but only 396 call options... Assuming that 4,000 of the options were bought by people with advance knowledge of the imminent attacks, these "insiders" would have profited by almost $5 million. - "On September 10, 4,516 put options on American Airlines were bought on the Chicago exchange, compared to only 748 calls. Again, there was no news at that point to justify this imbalance;... Again, assuming that 4,000 of these options trades represent "insiders," they would represent a gain of about $4 million. [The levels of put options purchased above were more than six times higher than normal.] - "No similar trading in other airlines occurred on the Chicago exchange in the days immediately preceding Black Tuesday. - "Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co., which occupied 22 floors of the World Trade Center, saw 2,157 of its October $45 put options bought in the three trading days before Black Tuesday; this compares to an average of 27 contracts per day before September 6. Morgan Stanley's share price fell from $48.90 to $42.50 in the aftermath of the attacks. Assuming that 2,000 of these options contracts were bought based upon knowledge of the approaching attacks, their purchasers could have profited by at least $1.2 million. - "Merrill Lynch & Co., with headquarters near the WTC Towers, saw 12,215 October $45 put options bought in the four trading days before the attacks; the previous average volume in those shares had been 252 contracts per day [a 1200% increase!]. When trading resumed, Merrill's shares fell from $46.88 to $41.50; assuming that 11,000 option contracts were bought by "insiders," their profit would have been about $5.5 million. - "European regulators are examining trades in Germany's Munich Re, Switzerland's Swiss Re, and AXA of France, all major reinsurers with exposure to the Black Tuesday disaster." [FTW Note: AXA also owns more than 25% of American Airlines stock making the attacks a "double whammy" for them.] On September 29, 2001 - in a vital story that has gone unnoticed by the major media - the San Francisco Chronicle reported, "Investors have yet to collect more than $2.5 million in profits they made trading options in the stock of United Airlines before the Sept. 11, terrorist attacks, according to a source familiar with the trades and market data. "The uncollected money raises suspicions that the investors - whose identities and nationalities have not been made public - had advance knowledge of the strikes." They don't dare show up now. The suspension of trading for four days after the attacks made it impossible to cash-out quickly and claim the prize before investigators started looking. "... October series options for UAL Corp. were purchased in highly unusual volumes three trading days before the terrorist attacks for a total outlay of $2,070; investors bought the option contracts, each representing 100 shares, for 90 cents each. [This represents 230,000 shares]. Those options are now selling at more than $12 each. There are still 2,313 so-called "put" options outstanding [valued at $2.77 million and representing 231,300 shares] according to the Options Clearinghouse Corp." "...The source familiar with the United trades identified Deutsche Bank Alex. Brown, the American investment banking arm of German giant Deutsche Bank, as the investment bank used to purchase at least some of these options..." This was the operation managed by Krongard until as recently as 1998. As reported in other news stories, Deutsche Bank was also the hub of insider trading activity connected to Munich Re. just before the attacks. ======================================
Has any trader with access to bloomberg, checked the specific options volume for the week(s) prior to 9-11? I don't have access to it, but out of curiosity, called CBOE 1-800-678-4667. I asked how can I get historical options volume data for the listed equities mentioned above for year 2001 and earlier. Their answer was interesting to say the least. They "used" to provide CD-ROM's with all the trades quotes/prices etc for all their option products. The CD's were available for purchase by anyone asking. But later in 2001 (he was vague exactly when and why) they decided to stop doing it. So the public was able to purchase complete data till maybe 1999-2000. Detailed data for 2001 are not available... So I asked if any other service may have that data paid or free and he referred me to OneChicago Options. (OneChicago according to him has been using CBOE info for their services) Well, checking with OneChicago on the web, it seems that they only go back to 2002! It seems that 2001 detailed daily and specific volumes on equity options are "difficult" to come by at least from these two sources. Another fact and maybe a curious coincidence in the following the money trails and possible beneficiaries: "July 24, 2001: Larry Silverstein's $3.2 billion purchase of the WTC is finalized. It's the only time the WTC has ever been in private hands. Silverstein hopes to win $7 billion in insurance from the 9/11 destruction of the WTC towers. [NY Times, 02/16/03, ICSC, 4/27/01, Newsday, 09/25/02]" Good opinions folks, good job for keeping the thread clean and on track.
i KNOW EXACTLY WHAT YOUR SAYING!! Although im very skeptical of the conspiracy and or cover up...I posted the OCC link with daily volume and SURPRISE surprise....i can only get OCT. 2001 on...
i maintain that this is a media hoax, and the volume occured AFTER the event, or it is a self fullfilling prophecy of sorts by funds "piling" on due to possible slight spike per previous poster. i i will keep an open mind and accept credible info to the contrary.... best, surfer
lol lol lol. if anything the media is complicit in dropping the ball on this story. as far as credible sources go you will never be satisfied. i remember hearing about this story in the first 48 hrs... what do you consider a credible source?
Im the same way though.....how about 60 minutes? CNBC? MSNBC? ABC? NY TIMES? ...and I still haven't seen this 'bloomberg report" just people citing it...can somebody put it up if it exists?
I for one find it hard to believe that people knowing about the attacks in advance would not try to profit from them in some way. It seems logical to me that at the very least people who are involved with or know the groups and people involved in the attack would try to profit.
Disagree.....In the muslim religion it is wrong to steal or profit ...uhm , well, ...never mind... seriously though you are right....although I would like more info....like, what was the price of UAL AMR and the strike prices? also, I don;t remember if they were the hardest hit stocks or not