And in the end it will be realized that all this QE never worked, they believe since asset prices are higher that QE worked....it didn't work, textbooks and documentaries will be written about this for years to come when all this goes haywire and everything collapses, its going to, no one saw the dot com bubble, no one saw the private equity bubble or the housing bubble or the commodity bubble, no one saw any of that until it was over, the same thing this time around, these markets aren't healthy, but no one will admit to that, especially after a 6 year bull rally. The US is going to have a couple of lost decades, it may not look like that now but its coming....noticed as soon as the US pulled out of QE 3, 2 more countries came in and started pumping their markets up with more free trillions and billions, and on top of that a handful of countries are still lowering interest rates, show me where there is growth, all this growth is fake, its all being pumped up by central bankers....show me a world thats growing in leaps and bounds with GDP strong enough to sustain a real world economy and I will believe every last bit of this rally, but thats too late...
Have you noticed on up days there is always a pic of a smiley trader on the floor but on down days they put up a pic of an exhausted trader covering his tired red face? As if no one makes money on down days
I'm certain that QE has been very effective and I have little doubt that it will seen that way in the future. Yes, the economy has been crappy but without QE there's no doubt that it would have been worse. The "lost decades" is more like a flat decade but the usual experience for this sort of banking panic is a couple decades of spiraling contraction. That they've avoided. My right wing buddies generally support hard money policies but it was hard money policies that made the Great Depression so horrible. The British should have let the pound devalue instead of trying to defend the gold price of 1914. I tell them that a gold backed currency is inferior to what we have now but an economy will work with it. But that if you're going to convert to it, you need to do it during good times (when no one wants to change the economy). And that's why we will not convert to a gold back currency until something like that arises in the eventual (inevitable) collapse of our paper currency. But that collapse is decades away. Sure "all this growth is fake", and there are all sorts of bubbles, but your sentiments are appropriate to capitalist economies for all time. There are several dozen (more or less) major countries with 100 or more years of capitalist economy under their belt and it is a universal fact that none of them have gone 30 years without a bubble economy. Taken together, this history of booms and busts covers thousands of years of economic histories. In the older capitalist countries the boom bust cycles have been running for about 400 years. If it were possible for *anything* to stop capitalist economies from going through boom and bust cycles somebody would have blundered into it by now. Instead everything fails and that includes central bank policy, laws, market reform, social reform, banning Jews from owning banks, etc.; none of it works because booms and busts are built into the laws of economics. When someone tells us that they can run the economy with booms and busts they are wrong. Most of them are simply piss-ignorant of economic history. A few of them are power-mad. The economy booms because economics has huge positive feedback built into its short term interactions. And it busts because those positive feedback build up into bubbles which then bust because there are negative feedback paths that operate over longer terms. This is universal human experience. Blaming the Republicans or Democrats, or fascists, or socialists, or Labor or Tories or the Greater East Asian Co-prosperity Sphere for the economic cycle is silly because the economic cycle is universal. The positive feedback is due to the fact that assets rise partly because they've been rising and so there is an expectation that they will continue to rise. So people buy houses at ridiculous prices because the prices keep getting more ridiculous. And the negative feedback is because this positive feedback leads to ridiculous prices that cannot be supported. Hey, solving these problems would make trading stocks a heck of a lot easier. Just buy when things are undervalued and sell when they are overvalued. But that doesn't work too well... Right now, they don't have much choice with the QE because the velocity of money collapsed. If they hadn't done it, economic activity would have dived deep, deep, deep and the whole society could have been at risk of collapse. Central bank policy is not as voluntary as it appears. They are forced by the situation to do most of what they do.
Your delusional creepy guy act is tiresome. You've posted this same message for years, and totally missed the boat on where markets went. If you think "no one" saw the dot com bubble you are wrong, plenty of people recognized the lack of earnings ( or even revenues ) of dot com companies. And most of the companies that were excessively valued crashed, but some good ones emerged and a select few are worth a lot of money now. At one point, Microsoft was a minnow in the IT world, and you'd have been screaming on here about the "crazy multiple" it was expanding on. And it grew and dominated world IT markets and did very well. Eventually, the business matured and stopped growing, but remained quite large in value and made a ton of money for those who invested in it many years ago. There is no point to your hysteria. You lack the insight to evaluate where the real value is among the masses. You lack an ability to fundamentally analyze and find it. To you, EVERYTHING has no value, the whole world is an illusion of value. This is not true at all, there are enterprises of great value even in the worst economies.
Love your crystal ball work, but I'm sceptical. Most important is to be ready to play whatever the market brings. Don't predict, prepare.
Markets needs to fall 50% to compensate for the systemic risk created by central banks. Only risk, no reward.
50% is being to nice, with the fed pumping trillions they are lucky they have come this far.....they propped up the entire economy with hot air, wait till this rolls over into the housing and the inflated bubble real estate market.....housing and rents are sky high, 30-40% correction is needed in that over heated market....just keep thanking the central bank's for the next crisis that's headed our way