I'm just curious - where do you get your numbers from? Is it from the old rule that states: "When you don't know what you're talking about, always make up exact statistics." ?
The CoT data don't show speculators pushing up the price of oil. www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/CL.png The previous run-ups in crude at the first of this year and at the middle of March both showed speculators getting heavily long. Not this time though.
I thought this was meant to be a trading forum, rather than a competition to see who is right/wrong. Countless times you will make wrong trades, but if you cannot move on from that, IMHO you are doomed. So what if WTI Crude hits US Peso 400 a barrel or it sinks to 77 US Peso it does not make a flipping difference. Trading has no time for academic type discussions, just action, risk management and being man enough to admit mistakes and moving on. Sheesh !!!
Chart ends at 4/23, doesnt it? I can't see for some reason on my screen. Additionally, any speculation at all (and there is a considerable amount) means that speculators are adding to the price of oil, right?
i went short today- small position with a hard stop a couple bucks north of the current print. too many talking heads coming on cnbc saying we're going higher- seems like an awfully crowded trade right now. i don't normally swing trade these days, but i'll give this some time (or until i get stopped out- just hope my stop isn't the short term top!). i posted a thread hypothesizing the impact of a PPT like intervention in oil- anyone have any thoughts? btw, i tend to think that this oil spike is good for the long term; as it may finally get us doing something about energy self-reliance. unfortunately, the left still has the masses convinced that we don't need to drill off our vast coastlines- if we'd have done this 20 years ago we wouldn't be held hostage and all our increasingly worthless dollars wouldn't be in the middle east. a link if anyone cares to comment: http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=126709
LOL says who? Wouldn't it be great if all stocks and markets would just trade exactly where we all feel they should trade at? Ah what a beautiful fantasy world it would be... we could all print money simply shorting whats overvalued and buying whats undervalued! Who needs technical analysis or a risk management discipline!
The fact that so many ETers are calling a top and the comparing the recent move to wheat is proof that oil is going to $160. This year. When ETers give up their short position and to long, maybe then we will see a pullback.
looks like there's going to be a monster death spike in the CRB: http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.a...=Y&org=stk&sym=$CRB&data=A&code=BSTK&evnt=adv commodity traders know the central banks are full of shit........they will talk tough but at the end of the day they will do nothing unless they are FORCED to act by public upheaval over out of control inflation.
Disagree back in SEPT and OCT when the markets were making new highs everyone thought it was going to last into the end of the year, IT DIDNT....get ready for a correction in oil.
http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.a...=Y&org=stk&sym=$CRB&data=H&code=BSTK&evnt=adv Looks like there's already been a spike,.