Excellent point! There is usually very "limited" risk management when it comes to the "Bubble-Watchers" of the world.
Any time I take on a risky trade I make sure its only 1-2% of my portfolio, Im still holding onto it, I figure oil could lose as much as $10-15 in a single week, I will sit back and wait for June 25th to come, I know as oil sits above $120 DCR will lose value on a daily basis. By the way they are releasing a new oil plays based on $100 oil, priced around $25, I will probably be buying that one as well.
Exactly, why sell oil now for cheap if they can sell it for more in the future. I love this post. Just love it how innocently stupid it is.
Read last month's Bloomberg magazine to get an understanding of just how screwed up Pemex is, not too mention the Mexican government that sucks Pemex totally dry so that 42% of the countries budget comes from the 65% taxation of Pemex. The same with Venezuela, the same with Iran and I believe Russia will get there too.
People shorting OIL remind me of the same guys that shorted FSLR at 40 and POT at 50. It has decoupled from weekly US inventories and the dollar. Oil isn't going to stop till 200 for the simple fact there is no substitute. World demand is soaring and there are great supply concerns. Don't go against a tidal wave or you will get smashed.
Were you around in 1999-2000, you know when analysts came out with quadruple price targets on stocks probably worth around 10 bucks. Were you around just the last 2-3 years when housing prices were jumping around 20-30% a year?? We all know what happened to those great times, they ended pretty sad....keep hoping for $200+ oil while the economy slowly suffers its worth recession in decades.
If that is the case, why did Opec release a statement today that said they are having problems finding buyers for extra crude inventory? http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-05/09/content_8132384.htm
Oil is getting ready for at least a $10-15 pullback, there isnt any reason why oil should be nearing 125, its all at this point based on speculation, sad because oil should be around $75-$90 at most.
OPEC meets in September but I think OPEC is going to step in and do something a bit earlier, they even know its out of control now, they need to calm all those speculators.