5y I appreciate your insight, it is helpful, and I don`t have a long-term opinion on oil, as there are too many variables too consider, do we start getting serious about sugar based car fuels like Brazil, do subsides stop, do economics dicate that Bejing slow down, and have a slight recession after the olympics, but one thing I do know is that there will be a massive correction in oil this year atleast 35 dollars, and I will capture that Delta---my take is sometime between now and October---options are cheap as hell, far out of the money, you have a fixed loss ratio, with huge upside, this is my kind of risk/reward trade.
Yeah I tend to agree with you, it does seem like oil is a bit over-bought and I do think there will be a big correction, $35 dollars might be right, who knows. My question is from where? From right here? From $150? When will the government institute price controls? Bush won't do it, but the democratic congress might. Maybe they will even find a couple more massive oil fields that can keep the supply going for a while, which would bring prices down temporarily, but we will run out eventually. This is how markets work and oil is working fine, the higher the price the faster we will find a solution. To "blame" high oil prices on speculators is just dumb. If they are wrong they will pay for it, thats capitalism. All the environmentalists (not that there are any on this board) should be cheering for higher prices. I am sure we will see big price corrections all the way up, a good trader would be able to capture these. So I am not agruing against ever going short, but this is a bull market and it isn't going to stop anytime soon. 5yr
Bluestreek, My comments are directed at you, just the general feeling I got from reading this whole thread. 5yr
The ANSWER is that he doesn't TRADE. He missed the entire 175 handle move off of the March lows in the SPX. All he did was "cut and paste" one post after another here on ET that would support his BEARISH BIAS . . . rationalizing why he couldn't pull the "trigger". If he did actually put his capital where his big mouth is on ET (fighting one trend after another ), he'd be bankrupt. His REAL job is here on ET. He gets paid .10 cents per post in between taking classes at Central Florida U.
Exactly. These are the exact SAME remarks that he made when the Fed stepped in with JP Morgan to support Bear Stearns . . . saying that the market would have ( and should have ) been "a lot lower" if it hadn't been for the FED. Blah, blah, blah . . . Crying like a 2-year old that just had his candy bar taken away. Just ridiculous. He's obviously never heard the trading MOTTO: "Our (job) isn't to question how or why, it is simply to sell or buy."
Another month goes by and another month you lose money trying to PICK A TOP IN OIL and COMMODITIES. I guess that the weatherman in Des Moines didn't know that Commodities are in a Bubble!!! July Corn now over $7.00 a bushel.