No real catalysts for them to end, haha, come on, this run is based on SPECULATION, thats all, put that aside and oil should be trading under 85 a barrel. I dont know where the top is,but all commodities are in bubble land right now.
I am not sure if you realize that nobody here is disputing the fact that oil will see a massive correction at some time (tomorrow? next month? in 9 months?). The real question is how do you make sure you have money left in your account to put into the market when the time has come when you constantly get your head handed to you by averaging into losing positions? Unfortunately there is no 100% guarantee that the next $50 move in crude is down and not up.
Iran rumor pushes oil to new record, gas jumps above $3.73 Tuesday May 13, 11:55 am ET By John Wilen, AP Business Writer Oil prices near $127 a barrel on rumor about Iranian output; gas prices above $3.73 NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices shot to a new record near $127 a barrel Tuesday on reports that Iran is planning to cut crude oil production. Gas prices, meanwhile, rose to a new record over $3.73 a gallon Tuesday, and their advance shows little sign of slowing with Memorial Day weekend, the traditional start of the summer driving season, just 10 days away. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080513/oil_prices.html
I agree but Im not throwing 100% of my money into shorting oil, im not even borrowing on margin to short oil, that to me is just too much risk, thats why I only have around 8-10% of my portfolio in oil/commodity etf shorts at this moment, will increase to 15-20% when and if oil does rise above $150, I believe at that point the consumer could totally fall apart with $5.00 gas, at that point wallstreet could be feeling the pinch since 2/3 of consumer spending is based on GDP growth.
very interesting: Bill's OK may halt delivery of reserve oil Email|Print|Single Page| Text size â + By Globe Wire Services / May 13, 2008 Sponsors of a measure to halt shipments of oil to the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve - offered as a way to help bring down record gasoline prices - say they are confident the bill will pass. The proposal was the lone measure endorsed in both Senate Republican and Democratic gasoline price plans. House and Senate plans set for a vote today would halt deliveries to the reserve until December unless oil falls to $75 a barrel for more than 90 days. "Everyone expects it to pass," said Bill Wicker, a spokesman for New Mexico Democrat Jeff Bingaman, speaking of Senate prospects. "Oil got up to $125 per barrel, and it no longer made sense," Wicker said of Republicans decision to support the measure. Oil in New York rose to a record $125.96 per barrel on Friday, from $116.50 a week earlier. The 8.3 percent gain is the largest in more than a year, and it moved legislators to come up with plans to try to bring down the price of gasoline. Crude oil for June delivery hit a record $126.40 a barrel yesterday, before falling to $124.23 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. "Suspending the SPR fill will keep the government from competing for oil in the marketplace and driving up fuel costs for American motorists and truckers during the summer driving season," Bingaman said in a statement. Sixteen Republican senators, led by Kay Bailey Hutchison, of Texas, wrote to Bush last month, asking him to halt shipments to the reserve. The White House yesterday rejected calls from Congress to stop adding oil to the reserve and divert those deliveries to the market and said it won't sell crude oil from the reserve to help boost available oil supplies and lower prices. "The president, as the person responsible for the safety and security of the American people, would resist any calls to start selling off Strategic Petroleum Reserve oil, and we don't think it would have that big of an impact on prices," White House press secretary Dana Perino told reporters. "It's like the fire extinguisher in case of an emergency," said Perino about the oil reserve. In Massachusetts, gasoline prices surged to another record high, 12 cents more than last week's mark. A statewide survey yesterday by AAA Southern New England found an average price of $3.68 per gallon for self-serve, regular unleaded. That compares with $3.56 a week earlier and marks the fifth consecutive week of higher prices. The state remains 3 cents below the national average of $3.71. A year ago, the Massachusetts average stood at $2.95. Until the recent spike in prices, the state's record price was $3.23 per gallon, set in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Meanwhile yesterday, the president said he will raise concerns about high oil prices when he visits with Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah this week. "The demand for oil is so high relative to supply these days that there's just not a lot of excess capacity. And of course I'll bring it up to him," Bush said in a CBS radio interview. "The price is even higher," Bush said, than when he made his last visit to Saudi Arabia in January.
That's not the actual quote, but it's close enough. Don't even think about a longterm oil play until it drops sub 100... Which may be never again.
where do you arrive at 85/barrel? do you have formulas that you derived that price level from? nothin like being in a trade and say stuff like "it should be here" and "i don't know where the top is"
I honestly don't think that oil is in a bubble. In the recent past we have seen several "bubbles" (Nasdaq and Housing, and possibly china) so a lot of people are calling oil a bubble, because anything that goes up very fast most be in a bubble. There are some major differences between housing and equities versus oil. If housing prices are going up rapidly we can build more houses. When tech stocks are going to the moon there is no limit to the number of companies that offer new shares. Oil on the other hand has a fixed supply, whether you think it is running out now (peak oil) in 5years or in 300 years, it doesn't change the fact that humans cannot (at least right now) make any more oil, we can only pump out the fixed supply that we have. In the US we already saw our oil production peak. (in the early 70's as predicted by Hubbert in the late 50's) Indonesia, a member of OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) is now importing oil. (Please note the exporting in OPEC) So all these "speculators" that are driving the price up might just be buying up a limited resource, realizing how vital it is to the global economy and that we need it more than any other resource to continue to operate. $200 price targets are nothing, in 10 to 20 years it is going to be much much higher. For those of you that are trying to get short, please know that any down turn in this market will be temporary and cover your positions quickly. Just wait for the saudis to admit that Gwahar is pumping out 55% water and this percentage is increasing daily. 5yr