LOL @ you guys I doubt any of you have ever traded a single stock or even have a trading account. Just a bunch of posers and fakers.
Oh cool, thanks. I was working on my short sale list...you just picked 5 of the most overbought sectors/stocks on the planet. I am going to add those to the list, thanks!
You never answered my question as to which stocks you have traded which leads to believe you are a faker and a poser whos only role is to bash my theads.
Your trading expertise has never been in doubt. Each post you make confirms what we all know. Your only hope is to concentrate on the new guys who haven't read your posts. Maybe they will follow your advice. We need a new flow of easy money.
I am not kidding here. 4 of the 5 will be on the "potential short list for novemeber" which i will present to my staff for my friday strategy meeting. all either have a topping pattern, or are in severely overbought conditions. classic.
You guys totally crack me up. The general market rule is that the majority is usually wrong. Now... what do you suppose the majority sentiment on this forum is? I agree that numbers make a difference. But being a small investor myself, a retail investor, who doesn't trade for a living, has no friends who trades for a living, who knows hundreds of people who have funds and savings, and who has invested in Real Estate since 1982 (WAY before it could beat the S&P on returns in my part of the country), I think I have a slightly different perspective here than most. Why would someone who claimed that the last 4 years of the market has been in an uptrend a 'permabull'? It has. If you bought stocks in 2002, you have made a lot of money. BUT if you were stupid and hung on from 1999-2000... you are still down 50% if you bought the QQQQ near the peak. If you bought into the top stocks of the time, you are 80%-90% down because of bankruptcies and the destruction of the dot-coms. NASDAQ broke 5000... whats it at now? To get a new high, over 10 years, NASDAQ has .... 100+% uptrend to go. Nasdaq is at 2330.5 right now... what do you mean 4 years of bull market? It took 4 years to recover to the 1/2 mark so far. But permabull over 4 years you say? Go look at a NASDAQ chart from 1974 to now... it looks like a bull market with only 1 significant dip in 1987-1989 (a dip that doesn't approach the dump in 2000-2003)... for 20+ years thru 2000. There's been more volatility since 2000 than any time before it for 30+ years. 4 years is a bull market for NASDAQ? With the wild gyrations up and down for the last 5? Please go look at that chart carefully, with appreciation that it WILL take 100% upside to reach a new high. NASDAQ has a long long way to go to the break even mark for a lot of people... break even as in, they made absolutely not one fat penny over the course of 10 years if they did a traditional buy/hold. The 'method' of investing your money 20 years ago. Many many people did it, and none of those who did recovered yet. Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting that it will trend up for the next 20 years without dips... but permabull isn't as dumb an outlook as it may appear. With some protection for the downside of course. No one looked at the DOW in the late 90s. Go look up some articles about Warren Buffet from 1999... ALL the top financial news were predicting the bankruptcy of Berkshire Hathaway... and that Warren Buffet was going to become obsolete. He nearly became a hermit in that year, refusing to grant interviews, because the point of most of those interviews was close to mockery. On hindsight, he got the last laugh and complete vindication, but back then, he was a joke. Value? In the late 90's, the ONLY place to be was tech and IPO. Dac, you said: "As far as "new money" coming into the market...it has to come from funds and institutions. At last look the average fund had only 4.4% in cash to invest further..and most of that they need to keep in cash for liquidity. with all the big boys missng numbers (WMT, CAT Etc.)and bad economic and retail numbers...you need to be VERY careful in this market. not to mention gorssly overbought conditions a==on all major indices. If i had to pu a ratio on the odds of this market continuing to ove up in the next few weeks/months...i would say the odds are less than 20%. but that is an arbitrary number that cant be measured." Right... and where do most small investors put their money? I DO agree that you have to be careful in this market, because you are right, the economic indicators aren't that strong... but hey... bull markets climb the 'wall of worry' right? When everyone feels good about the market, it's time to SELLLLL! Grossly overbought? I see an awful lot of MorningStar 5 star value stocks still. I wouldn't call it overbought when Nasdaq hasn't really begun a true rally, and the DOW has only just now hit a new high after doing what it's done for the last 10. The economy may go into a pit over the next few months (tho I've heard this one I don't know how many times over the last 4 decades)... but the stock market may not care anyway. If the liquidity hits the market from Real Estate... watch out. As for sitting on cash.... I don't know what investors you know, but the ordinary retail investor NEVER sits on cash. If they have cash, it's because they are furiously looking for where to put it, and whether it's up or down, it's going there, because otherwise, it's time for a new car or plasma TV or a cruise. Not many people trust themselves with cash. If you sit on cash, that 1.5% checking/saving account interest you're getting is eroding that cash daily, one way or another you're going to spend it because in your mind, you're already losing it. Further, people buy during good times, it's a psychological thing. Once it starts dropping... it can keep dropping... no one wants to be on the wrong end of that. You are talking to someone who got burned hard in 2000. I watched Nasdaq go from 5000 to 1200... taking my money with it the whole ride down. And last week... when I felt worried about the market direction (maybe down?).... what did I do? I who REALLY know better? Chunked more money into a stock account and bought more funds, ETF and stock. LOL! Just because you know or think you know what you should do, doesn't mean you don't do it. Of course, if I buy stocks when they're rising, I cover my ass with trailing stops, puts or covered calls. But it doesn't stop me from buying for 10 minutes, especially up or churning markets (because who doesn't like a bit of gambling?). Everyone I know does the same thing. Only traders can keep 'cash on the sides', for the rest of us, cash = hole in pocket. And anyway, I'll make money if it goes up, and I'll make money if it goes down. Who cares which way it goes? It was just stock trad3r getting pounded all by himself that brought me out of the woodwork... because so far, the guy's been right (but stock trad3r... please go buy puts on each of your trades. And I mean... RIGHT NOW).
If this board is any indication of the market then I would say we will be choppy for the next couple of months. This board is split pretty close to 50-50 on the bull vs bear ratio. Personally, I am still bullish, and will continue to be until my indicators tell me not to be. They've worked in the past, and I will always follow them until they prove to be wrong consistently.
"The general market rule is that the majority is usually wrong." this is an oft-repeated meme and its incorrect. the majority is not usually wrong. because most of the time, the only way the indexes move up is if the majority are long. and of course, stubborn shorts help what is true, is that AT MARKET REVERSAL POINTS (prior to major corrections or reversals from a bear market), the majority is usually positioned wrongly. but in the middle of a trend, the majority is usually right. what people mean about the majority is that extremes of market sentiment/investment represent (often) turning points. its not an issue of 'usually'. its an issue of extremes of sentiment.