Actually, I think just the opposite... the 'smart money' guys have been trying to drop this market for a while now... because they know that RE investor money is getting ready to pour in. For much of the month of Oct, the news has been trying to put a negative spin on the reports. Are we heading for a recession? Recession stocks, fixed income funds, hedging during downtimes, Gold going to $1000, oil may go back up... etc etc ... those were the headlines for the whole month, giving a not so subtle SELL SELL SELL signal. As I said, probably to shake out the wishy washy, or get people to short (pushing up stocks further when they have to cover). As people close on their real estate, they sure aren't going to park that money in more real estate. And many retail real estate investors/sellers are not heading for FOREX or Options, or even individual stocks. They may not know the market very well, so they will probably park their money in funds or index ETFs. The funds have to buy once they get a certain amount of cash built up. I don't think there's enough sellers except shorts, and they will end up having to cover, pushing the market up more. If there's one thing I learned in my huge 2000 losses, it's to cover my butt for the downside... but the bigger lesson is... don't miss the big up moves, since those few spikes are what account for the majority of profit. The market goes up, the market goes down, but I think we're way overdue for trying to close the gap on people's 2000 losses. 4 years of bull run my ass. We're still not 1/2 way to the Nasdaq high. We still have a long way to go... UP. This is actually the first time I've ever been 100% invested in the market... ever. Tho smart investors always have the downside covered, just in case. I'm sure there will be some big down days to come around election time, but there's simply too much money looking for places to go as real estate dies.
I agree-money form real estate is flowing into the markets and the trend will continue for a long time. Probably for the next 5-10 years. Most of the money managers and investment bankers from the 1980-2000 are retiring/quitting and replaced by so called 'new money' to bid the markets up again. A new MASSIVE stock market bubble is innevitable. There was a bubble in 1987, 2000, and now a new one is in the works. Market updates: Dow 12,097.38 Up 111.34 (0.93%) Nasdaq 2,368.84 Up 38.05 (1.63%) S&P 500 1,379.73 Up 15.43 (1.13%) Massive gains since my update in the morning. 44 more minutes of trading. This is huge rebound rally. Shorts losing lots of money. Thats how these markets work.
genereally speaking, i agree but i think one thing needs clarification "The market goes up, the market goes down, but I think we're way overdue for trying to close the gap on people's 2000 losses. 4 years of bull run my ass. We're still not 1/2 way to the Nasdaq high. " nasdaq, nasdaq nasdaq. this is NOT yer daddy's bull market, it is not the 90's and lots of daytraders missed most of this bull market by looking at the Nasdaq composite and not the SPEWI, the TRANS, the Russell (heavily laden with oil stocks), etc. by the metric of the nasdaq composite, ew are WAY off from the 2000 highs by the metric of various other market measures, we are way ABOVE 2000 highs
Which metric? Unless my chart is wrong, the S&P 500 in 2000 was a high of 1552.87. Tell me, how close is 1380.89 from 1552? I remember reading an old stock investment book back in the early 90's, that said that at ANY point you invested, including buying the morning of the start of the Great Depression (crash of '29), within 10 years all the indexes had surpassed the peak. If we do NOT hit 5000 NASDAQ and 1552 by the year 2010, will be the first time in stock market history that hasn't been true. From 2000-2005, everyone ran away from the crash right into Real Estate. I've asked this several times... where can they go now?
"Which metric? Unless my chart is wrong, the S&P 500 in 2000 was a high of 1552.87. Tell me, how close is 1380.89 from 1552?" the metrics i mentioned. what part of SPEWI don't u understand or TRANS or Russell? or amex composite? by the metric of the LEADERS of the 90's bull market, we haven't achieved the highs- well, yes it's a fraudulent metric, if you are measuring THIS bull market it's not the same bull market. how much are the trans up? the SPEWI? the Russell? etc. not to mention gold (i loaded gold in 1998, so i'm pretty happy with that) etc. the nasdaq composite is also not a supply/demand proxy, since there is no futures contract for it. but that's another issue if yer waiting for VERT to come back to its highs - you might be waiting a while. take this bull market on its merits just like judging the 90's bull market by the previous metric (nifty fifty anyone)? would be equally as nonillustrative. the S&P 500 is cap weighted, and thus has not come back as much due to the heavy caps like INTEL and MSFT having relative suckitude look at the SPEWI and then tell me we're not rawkin'
i hope this "huge bull market" doesnt bring in those new daytraders who think they are now able to trade the market because it only goes one way -----------UP!!!!
ACM I remember back in the late 90's when everyone and their children were daytrading, it was truly pathetic. I have spoken to a few people who were once daytraders saying have you heard the dow is at all time highs......and you know what they do, look at me with a blank stare... They havent got a clue what is happening in this market today. They were the ones giving me tips, saying I cant believe how rich I am back just 7 years ago. Today they are far far far away from the market, they just did it because it was a trend and if that trend ever comes back Ill be sure to buy puts and short everything.
Pathetic? I know quite a few individuals who are putting money from real estate sales into the stock market (Mutual Funds). There's no where else to put it with Real Estate as rocky as it is now. Individuals *I* know, in *my* part of the country may not indicate a trend, so I ask, what are those people going to do with their money? Put it in 4.5% CD's... when they're reading the news in even small local papers about the DOW's new high? What's truly pathetic is that anyone missed the runup of the last 3 months... and may miss more runup. Speaking of daytraders, I was one of those stupid day traders in 2000. I didn't even look at my holdings after the big PALM IPO crashed thru the ground in the first 20 min of trading... helping me to very large losses thereafter. I kept a lot of those holdings, to remind myself of what I would never do again, and to see if we'd ever hit those highs again. I'm back in the market. A few years wiser, and thanks to real estate a few hundred thousand richer again.... right back into the market trading. And maybe daytrading... with all my plays covered with puts this time around. ROFL! SPEW? I'm a clueless retail investor buddy. I look at the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P 500 for my trending. I buy calls to cover when everything's trending and I buy puts to cover when it's volatile. When it comes crashing down, and eventually the market's going to come crashing down, I sell my longs with my shorts, and I'm still ahead. I stay far away from small and micro caps, and I'll just keep trying to improve on my 400% gains from 2003 - 2006 as a dumb retail trader. No brainer way to make $$, and I still make money when it crashes too. Maybe people put a tad too much thought into a simple problem with a simple solution. Maybe you guys should short the market now with all that coming recession... when my gains get capped and I have to sell off, you might get to participate. You might have to cover a lot of shorts, waiting for the recession... and miss the rally, but you won't have to worry. Or better still, don't do anything and keep your money in your checking account earning that 2%. Whatever makes you happy. Those who insist that bad times are here... I suppose if the 12,000 DOW and today's 3 digit gains didn't convince you of anything, oh well. I couldn't believe someone asking if ANYONE made anything the last 3 months... omg. LOL!