Almost all conventional metrics were screaming bubble before this black swan. Sure, "this time it's different because low interest rates..." I don't know if the horse has left the barn, but it's not entirely unlikely if it has.
Studied every major waterfall decline since the 1920's. The vast majority will retrace at least 61%-76% of the sell off. We had a weak 50% retrace which is very bearish.
Surprise risk. No one had a plan ready for, The world is closed due to a flu virus. Does the failure of Gold to break out to the upside confirm that this correction will be short lived? Does the collapse of Stock Indexes, Oil and Gold at the same time signal a legit Deflation?
Corona pandemic is very diffrent from financial crisis. Government can'nt simply solve the problem by printing more money, QE package is a painkiller at best. China can curb the corona virus prettywell due to it autocracy government which can force people to do whatever they want & chinese is better than white human at handling pandemic due to their experience in 2003 SARS and various type of disease caused by pollution. White human with their advanced medical system seem fearless and take no safety measure to protect themselves from disease, at least before the government intervened in and ban travel from all over Europe. I live in the ricefield, the weather these days is very hot (ranging from 28 to 34 celcius degree) but the disease still spread like crazy, so don't expect the situation will get better in the summer . I expect the stock market will continue to decline till we find a cure or vaccine, and extreme sharp decline will happen in quarterly report months when company show how much their loss due to the pandemic effect
"White Humans". Good lord, you sound like a bad video-game on-screen text translation. And a self-proclaimed Chinese person who claims to live in the rice fields of China, with the nick of Vietcong? Didn't those Chinese folk dis you during the latter stages of the war in 'Nam?
I agree and also assume markets will continue to be bearish until a cure is found OR the virus goes away naturally such as the Spanish flu did.
I didn't say it wasn't a bubble , never mentioned interest rates , factually what I said still stands , if I were to indulge in a more subjective description I would suggest compared with other crashes , the fundamental reason ( corona) has more credibility.