This is how I trade forex (March FX ~ signals)

Discussion in 'Journals' started by MarchFX, Jun 4, 2021.

  1. MarchFX

    MarchFX

    You might like the idea of being a Forex trader, but it is not right for everyone. I hope that this thread will help me to remain dedicated and patient enough to stick to my trading plan and method. I will share trading signals here. I don't want to share even a single losing signals. From June 2021, ITS ALL WINNING AND NO LOSING!
     
    maxinger likes this.
  2. maxinger

    maxinger

    be careful. Do not aim for perfection.
    we are not an archer.

    around 60% success rate is very good.
    also target reward : risk ratio of > 2:1

    There are people who have a very high success rate
    because their reward : risk ratio is very bad.



    all the best mister.
     
    comagnum, toc and heispark like this.
  3. What is your overall strategy? Holding period?
     
  4. My 20% Win Loss last month begs to differ. It takes a toll on our psychology, we are only human.

    How is my robot speak.
     
  5. expiated

    expiated

    Martha Stokes recommends that traders accept nothing less than a 75% to 80% success rate. Of course, as far as I'm concerned, traders can accept whatever they like, but I'm in her camp when it comes to the expectations I set for myself (85% or better).

    Regarding risk/reward ratios, I've written on this topic before, but I can't find the post. Unfortunately, I'm not going to make the effort to attempt duplicating what I wrote in that carefully thought out entry, so instead, I'm just going to copy and paste a slightly modified excerpt of something written by Erich Senft. Though he does not reflect my exact sentiment, he's not all that far off...

    Risk/reward ratios are one of those trading lies that sound good but don't work in real life. Risk/reward ratios do not help you make money.

    So rather than focusing on risk/reward I focus on probability: what is the probability that the trade will work out? Risk/reward ratios have nothing to do with the probability of a profitable trade, but a trade's probability is much more important that its reward relative to the risk.

    Besides, unlike the reward, a trade's probability is something you can figure out objectively. And once you know the probability of a trade working out, trading becomes a matter of risk management. Risk, unlike reward, is the only part of the trading equation you have any control over. So if you can afford the risk, take the trade. It's really that simple.

    Probabilities combined with risk control are a very powerful combination for making money—much better than risk/reward ratios.


    I maintain that I can achieve a 90% success rate with a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio using something I call "consensus trading." But then, talk is cheap, so who cares?
     
    Fonz likes this.
  6. MarchFX

    MarchFX

    AUDNZD: We have this divergence here, every single indicator I use including the EA shows that this is a perfect trading opportunity. However, the high impact GBP news 19 minutes ago makes it risky for me to embrace this opportunity. I would have recommended entry at 1.07806, stop loss at 1.07736 and tp at 1.07886.

    upload_2021-6-11_9-16-30.png
     
  7. MarchFX

    MarchFX

    As you can see below, AUDNZD became a wasted opportunity this week. Take profit would have been hit.
    upload_2021-6-11_10-4-26.png
     
  8. MarchFX

    MarchFX

    @expiated and @maxinger and all my mates, I really appreciate your presence here. This week, I achieved no progress, but learned important lesson about what @maxinger told me, not to aim for perfection. I lost the few pips from what would have been a perfect opportunity (were it not for the high impact news affecting GBP- i feared that the news could have affected this pair as well yet the stop loss was at just 8 pips).
    upload_2021-6-11_20-40-33.png
     
  9. maxinger

    maxinger


    my expected reward : risk RR ratio is > 2:1

    I trade mainly index futures, commodities, and perhaps bonds.
    I seldom trade currencies ( see below for the reason).
    If I trade currencies, it will be audusd, eur,usd, gbpusd.
    Don't bother about those cross currency pairs. The RR ratio
    and trendiness are going to be horrible.


    Now talk about last week's EURUSD trading opportunities.
    over the last 23 * 5 = 115 hours,
    there was only only only 1good signal on 11 Jun 2021, Friday, around the early European session.
    Just imagine you stared at the screen nonstop for 115 hours and you missed
    that signal on 11 Jun 2021.
    Then you can't bring home the bacon.

    Then what do currency traders do?
    reduce RR ratio, trade cross currency pairs .....
    Some traders do it perhaps because they know how to do it.
    I will not do it.


    I hope I have given you a broader picture.
     
  10. MarchFX

    MarchFX