Strategies come and go, I realized the strategy did not work after it returned a loss for 2 consecutive months, which is deviant from the pattern. ATM I no longer use this strategy like I have said a dozen times. I too ran the strategy from 2002 to 2004 and from 1992 to 1997 but perhaps with more scrutiny and thought than you have. take into account that citi stock has split numerous times since its inception, and those data entries need to be handled meticulously case by case for it will skew the data significantly. There is another pattern to trade for 02 to 04 and 92-97 that will yield a profit. Luck has nothing to do with it, if you knew the amount of work I put into this in back testing before I pulled the trigger. There's and old Chinese idiom, " For every 10 minutes of success on stage, there are 10 years of hard work behind the stage." People get lucky trading stocks for 2 trades or better yet for 2 days, even 2 weeks. No one gets lucky for 2 years. I have took my profits and ran and moved onto another similar strategy for a totally different stock. Risk management is my top priority, but I have developed an acute sense to spot these trends and managed to "control" my daily gambles.
I read that article. I did a simple excel analysis for 1 year with GLD and the strategy lost money. You would have been better off simply buying and holding it.
Sorry, eric, I was thinking the same thing. If you've been making money on it, consider it dumb luck. In the long run, you are probably better off getting a health care professional job than trying to daytrade in the financial markets.
Whatever you say. I've found tens of strategies like that - never traded them as it's a clear curve fit. The minimum for me is that it has to work for the whole market (at least on the whole exchange). No disrespect but you're still a bit new to this. People get lucky for a couple of years all the time, specially with the time/date strategies that have good runs that eventually end. I tested on split adjusted data, so the splits have no effect. There's no connection between time spent on backtesting and the validity of the edge, the logic behind it.
There is no doubt about it, i am definitely new to this game. But explain to me why analyzing past charts and technicals to trade in the future is any different? If you found a method that can make money on the entire market from 1992 YTD then my hats off to you sir. Fact is I've been making money on it consistently, and to call it dumb luck or to suggest only the conventional day trading methods are real skills is a little bias don't you think ? It's not a mystery that over 90% of the people day trading out there are loosing money. Obviously the conventional method is not fool proof either. The purpose of this thread is to let struggling traders know that they can explore other alternative methods to trading and still make money. I guess i rather have dumb luck and make money than to have real skills reading charts and technicals but loose money any day is what I'm saying . "between time spent on back testing and the validity of the edge, the logic behind it" under your logic I can say in the world of trading. there are no correlation between time spent analyzing and developed methods to the actual profits generated or lost. There's only win or loose at the end of the day. Talk is cheap and Money talks. Just a little food for thought.
TA matters more as you will be analyzing price (with volume being highly relevant), the piece of data that matters the most. When you begin with a strategy based on wrong assumptions, it doesn't matter how much you measure and tweak it - the time spent on it is irrelevant. In trading, it's not about "money talks" as there isn't just reward. Reward is always accompanied with risk. I think you will be proven wrong in the next few years, I hope you won't be disappearing when that happens - that's very common on ET. I sincerely wish you good luck as if you can make it work for you, it is truly something.
I understand where your coming from, but aren't all trades done in speculation? in that case, analyzing anything at all, at the end of the day, is still speculation. When I said money talks I meant to point out that there is no such thing ( at least known to man) as a bulletproof strategy in this game of trading. So the only thing that matters in the end is making money, the rest is all speculation at best. Thanks for the wishes !
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bank-...now-about-market-down-morning-rally-afternoon 0 'edge did this post on a similar phenomenon a while back. From memory, I think they also had a similar post with regard to GLD.