I'm not qualified to comment on Aaron's situation. Obviously, he has done far more testing than the average trader and has an extremely professional approach. What I think it illustrates however is how hard it is to be a totally systematic trader. He has had four consecutive down months and accepts it as the vagaries of the market. Most of us would panic and revise our approach if we had four consecutive losing trades.
Thanks, Compisnada. I'm reminded of something Steven Wright said: "I plan on living forever. So far, so good." I'm more eager than anyone else to find out how May turns out for the Schindler Fund.
This is a great thread -- i just want to say that it's really cool to read these blurbs straight out of the horse's mouth from Aaron and P2. It's like getting market wizards interviews for free in real time. Aaron, your frankness and willingness to discuss the big hits that you've sustained are totally admirable - thank you. Personally, I've scaled way way down for 2003, and have felt like a total amateur all year long. These markets are very tough. It's good to see that you are keeping in touch with reality and not getting shaken by the oddities of 2003. P2 - it's great that your fund is staying strong. You are the ET rags to riches guy, and it's been amazing to watch you evolve into something which most of us aspire to be.
Thank-you bungrider. I appreciate it. I owe this site a lot, and I try to give back in any way I can.
You said any criticism was welcome, but apparently you are not very open to constructive criticism. You could easily and quickly learn some spelling corrections by using the Check Spelling utility which is made conveniently available each time you submit a post. I tried to give you the suggestion as unintrusively as possible to avoid giving you offense, but you chose not only to take offense but to reply rather ingraciously. You can go on insisting on spelling things incorrectly if you choose, but who would be the anal dickhead in that case?
Ouch! What's the probability that you'll lose 80% p.a.? 1%? 2%? Can you outline more precisely how your estimated probability distribution map looks like? Since you and your investors accept this - it's OK. But I have serious doubts whether it's good money management strategy. As you know, to recover from 80% loss you must make +400%. This can take many years. The length of the flat period (consistency of returns) is almost as important as rate of returns IMO.