yeah, frankly i've felt like a bum for most of 2003 because i haven't been taking overnights and normally that's where i make 75% of my income. i've been focusing on my intraday game, and while its improved immensely, it's produced only chump change as the ranges have gotten tighter and the liquidity from instutions and other dumb money has slipped away...now it feels like negative expectancy.
I have noticed that 110% of all intraday traders go bust. Commisions end up being the reason. It is the swing traders that tend to do well. But this is just my opinion, and there are allways exceptions so do not take this too literal. All the good traders know thier limitations and wether or not the current market conditions should be traded. So they stay away when they know that things just are not right.
other thread mention the word 'super adventure' that trigger 'super greg adventure' that remind me to check his result; Total Profit to date: $21,265 # trades correct: 11/16 = 69% http://www.adventuresofgreg.com/
I personally have nothing against Aaron. My further comments relate to any young money manager. http://www.schindlertrading.com/performance.htm I don't see a solid track record. The Fund hasn't been opened for even 2 full years. It's logical to think that at the beginning of 2003 the Fund had the largest inflow, due to great performance in the previous year. After that he lost close to 38 %. It's a bit of speculation, but I would say that in overall monetary (not percentage) terms the Fund lost more money than it made. Some hedge funds (even the great ones) have a pre-set percentage mark, and if the fund drops below that, they automatically shut it down, which makes a lot of sence, because if you lose 50%, you have to make 100% just to get to breakeven, plus before getting the chance to make it back you will have a lot of fund withdrawals, which will make it even harder to get back to where you were. I didn't want to sound too cocky, I'm too young of a trader to criticize anybody, but I've already seen too many traders making a lot of money and just blowing all away. I trade at a prop firm, but personally I've set a 25% stop, meaning if I lose more than 20 percent from my last 12 months of profits I will cut my size to minimum and completely reevaluate my overall strategy. Once again, I wish Aaron the best luck and hope he makes it back and much more, but when you're managing other people's money you have to be so much more responsible.
One guy here has a signature ..:: Slow and steady wins the race ::.. that's exactly what we got here - if you shoot for high returns you're decreasing your chances of survival... It's way too early to close Schindler Fund, IMO. Many CTAs had drawdowns ~40% and are still in business, for example Campbell ( http://www.iasg.com/SnapshotPT.asp?ID=67 ). We'll see how many months it would take for Aaron to reach Dec 2002 peak.
aaron should close the fund IF that's in HIS risk management rules. and if he didnt yet that means the drawdown is not at that point yet, because he is disciplined.