there is just this part of me that would love to find an edge in these shitty vix ETFs... theres gonna be a way to exploit them... but reality is i'm just being stubborn because i'm holding on to the grudge i have from the lost money in the vixy... thoughts..
VIX Related Exchange Traded Products Russell Rhoads, The Options Institute at CBOE Tuesday, September 11, 2012 | 12:00-1:00PM Central Sign up with CBOE (free) and attend, you may find something interesting. http://www.cboe.com/LearnCenter/OptionsInstitute1.aspx Webcasts listed here http://oiwebcasts.cboe.com/UI/Content/Home.aspx?IsSingleSignOn=true
looking to sell a credit spread on Bidu... close to the money... oct.. it just bounced up a good bit....... put a order in didn't get filled.. waiting to see if i can get a better fill
no lies my teacher told me that he had no idea what kurtosis is and he has a masters degree in statistics.... what a joke school is!
An example of kurtosis is the Poisson distribution. As you can see, this can be applied to trading to help determine the distribution of winning trades for an edge based trade setup. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution In probability theory and statistics, the Poisson distribution (pronounced [pwasɔ̃]) is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time and/or space if these events occur with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event.[1] (The Poisson distribution can also be used for the number of events in other specified intervals such as distance, area or volume.) Suppose someone typically gets on the average 4 pieces of mail per day. There will be however a certain spread: sometimes a little more, sometimes a little less, once in a while nothing at all.[2] Given only the average rate, for a certain period of observation (pieces of mail per day, phonecalls per hour, etc.), and assuming that the process, or mix of processes, that produce the event flow are essentially random, the Poisson distribution specifies how likely it is that the count will be 3, or 5, or 11, or any other number, during one period of observation. That is, it predicts the degree of spread around a known average rate of occurrence.[2]
I'm familiar with these distros.... I was just making a comment about how far academia is away from.usefulness.... . First thing they teach you is about trimming distros of their outliers.... like the outliers are messing things up!
Yes, but I think the problem is people rote learn a concept and apply it blindly. For example when we measured productivity in various factories, we always excluded the outliers because we invariably found really abnormal circumstances underlying those numbers. So to measure the norm, we excluded them. In trading, tail events are either where the moolah is, or they are what kills you if you bet against them for long enough without recognising the dangers. Trimming them is just suicide, like saying I don't want to know they exist. Trouble is people learn the what and not the why.
the real big money is in the tails.... either knowing how to hedge it.. or knowing how to get long convexity at that point..