You sure ? Quick look at a dailey chart it would have gotten you out and back in at advantageous levels in 08/09'and 2011 and 2016 while keeping you in the trending bull at other times. Again, I'm just eye balling with some quick calculations, no back testing and not including tax ramifications or x-action. Has anyone done a true test vs buy/hold ?
I’ll take a more in depth look, but simply doing what Vic said not sure it beats buy and hold as of late. I wonder perhaps if Vic has some sort of other filters he uses in conjunction with the 200 and it rising or falling. Such as the 200 must be sloped a certain degree to be valid. Otherwise you can get whipsawed several times over. I may be wrong, but just feel like he has other filters involved.
I agree, I'm sure it is not that simplistic. Your "slope" may have some merit. Let us know what you find.
If you look close in early dec price closes above the 200 and the 200 actually slightly slopes up. I believe in KISS but there are of course filters that need to be used in addition.
since 1/2/2013: Buy and hold: 79% net return BUY SPY if closing price > 200 day sma and SELL SPY if closing price < 200 day sma => 73% net return 24 trades total, 12.7% max drawdown, 0.907 sharpe ------ since 1/2/2016: Buy and hold: 32% BUY SPY if closing price > 200 day sma and SELL SPY if closing price < 200 day sma 31.5% 12 trades total, 12.4% max drawdown, 0.903 sharpe using 200dma beats buy and hold from 1999 - 2009 using 200dma reduces max drawdown