You could have said the same thing in 2009. But the market kept going up with everyone out of it, that's why it was the most hated rally ever. The next rally to ATH will be even more hated.
This is a market that'll crash hard. https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-...ns-if-coronavirus-cripples-government-1492878 https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-22-20/index.html We're right up there with zombie apocalypse & war times. Millions may die, food shortages, looting, martial law, violence, bank runs and mad max world are on people's minds. Investing in stocks, no. Armageddon is on our doorstep and preppers are looking smart. I'm going to buy more inverse ETFs like SQQQ TWM VXX.. I just hope banks and brokers don't go bankrupt, and hope we all survive. #staysafe
This site is a laugh a minute; best not get trading advice here though. I'm calling it NOW! 100 year bear market. S&P to 1. Economy literally canceled. My call will not be outdone. Party on bearbros.
this other thread https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/dr-who-wrong.342026/ my estimation would be even lower around 0.1% death on the population, based on Wuhan with 10m residents and about 3000 dead. Wuhan is basically a full population infection scenario where patient 0 was 2 months before the city shut down was implemented... so if you extrapolate and say 10000 would die if nothing was done at all other than basic quarantine like you are sick don't go to school/work to sneeze on everyone. People are morons so they panic with no perspective. say 0.1% of US population dies from this, that's 350000.. in 2018 we had 80000 dead from the flu.... so Corona is flu on steroids.... but why was there zero panic in 2018. the market dropped a couple of times in 2018 but for unrelated reasons. yes you can argue the Government has limited ability to tackle. but what is the correct approach anyway? then you have the media machine throwing fuel on the fire. in this case ironically the state controlled media in China worked better as everything was a rally call to pump up the population's morale. then about the shut-downs and social distancing and the economic effects. you say well 350000 is a lot bigger than 80000 and if we can save a lot of lives why don't we shut down the economy for that.... this is a slightly bigger topic. first of all human life is not priceless.. otherwise we would have to ban all cars without airbags and put missle defense systems on all passenger airplanes.... and heck ban all cars all together since they kill 100 per day in the US and severely injure another 300 or so. insurance companies value human lives at $2m per, give or take, for risk calculation. say if this whole thing is a 5% GDP drag on the US $20T, that equates to about 500,000 death on the economic loss. you can do similar calculations for any other countries and the conclusions will be about the same.. so the domestic GDP loss is already bigger than the lives saved. not to mention the soft damage to the quality of life due to the shut downs. all the people suffering hardship due to loss of income. not to mention, since the same premium can buy far less insurance for old people then the young, you can argue old lives worth less..... but of course that kind of argument will never fly in politics. not to mention, this is only domestic damage. very few will die from starvation in the US or Europe due to corona. but the economic slow down will have a huge impact on the 3rd world countries many of which rely on exports of goods/services... you can be sure a large number of people will die there due to the economic hardship. so the 'people are morons' argument.... it's a bit long to unwind... first of all the panic is completely irrational, and it takes some math to explain why even the shut-downs and social distancing is not necessarily the right way to deal with it. flu on steroids... that's the term I have been using.
of course all them people who have lost their shirts during the 10 year bull run come out now and take a breather for a couple of weeks.... was the same during every one of previous corrections in 2015, 2016, 2018 (twice), only to find themselves go right back to hiding a few weeks later. this thing obviously does not spread in hot climate. India Africa South America all have basically nothing other than some imported cases. when summer comes in June only a couple of months away, corona is no longer then what, we are left with all the stimulas... off to the race to ATH again. not to mention can you imagine the revenue surge for AMZN GOOG NFLX online shopping/entertainment and technology in general to support all this move to work remotely. why are people so short sighted.... 2008 was a true systemic structural damage where the foreclosures took months/years to digest. what do we have here... sure some lay offs here and there, once stores are open again these people will go right back to work. there is no asset collapse here as the Fed is back stopping everything... they learned the lesson in 2008.
this relief package, $2t, that's 10% of GDP, already double the estimated drag of 5% from Corona. and 5% is more on the worst-case side. China Q1 was down about 14%, probably some improvement in Q2 but you can be sure there will be a surge back latest in Q3 due to pent up demand.... by Q4 nobody will remember it.... once the northern hemisphere goes thru the summer corona will be history.
You do post logical arguments. I guess the markets are then all about the fact that people simply don't have the liquidity needed. So now it's a race to take as much out as possible. Will it be temporary when we look back a year from now ? Probably, but it can easily go to low enough that noone predict before making a u-turn. It's all about the liquidity. Nowadays, people do seem to weather longer so that just makes the markets wider. Markets are all about to stop you out, only the unleveraged get rewarded. But that reward isn't attractive to those who trade with 10-100k accounts which the majority is. Think about it, a 50k account with EVEN a 10% yearly return (which non of them will make consistantly in the long term) is a mere 400 usd/month gross salary so leverage is sadly the only option for them.