Same things were said after the 9/11 tech crash and the housing bubble crash. This is not a deep systemic collapse in the market, it is an artificial creation that could end in 4 weeks and then get a lot of financial support. We will not spike back to where we were but a 2-3 year bear market seems hyperbole.
Once bitten twice shy, who's gonna invest in stocks when they got burned by the drop, anytime soon? Millennials on Robin hood? Nope Boomers with smaller retirement funds? Nope Laid-off unemployed? Nope Things are in a state of shock for at least this year. Only us active traders, wall street traders and algos minding the store for awhile, and we go short and long... degenerate traders lol No investors much for awhile. Bull plays will be short squeezes, relief rallies and times during buybacks. Loving inverse ETFs
I disagree with every aspect your theory. Huge support for the SPX in the 1900-2000 area similar to the support the TSX already has in the 11500-11900 area. V shaped recovery is almost a lock on US markets once they make a floor. Might be a truncated V until the economy sorts itself out ( eg 3400 might not happen but 3000-3200 seems likely within a year imo ) However, it matters very little short term US markets have risk and uncertainty whereas much better value on the TSX. Canadians overreact to crisis drove the TSX to a floor already tons of trading opportunities. I like mining as a play on the crisis being bad Gold could set new highs in certain outcomes. Like any forecast there is no certainty only probability. If we did go to 1500, it's a massive buying opportunity that will easily double within 5 years. However, the poor preparation in the US for the virus adds more downside risk then normal. It also creates a strong opportunity on good news.
I doubt we break 1900 to any lasting degree there is just too much upside potential on many US listed stocks at those levels. I think we get a huge rally at some point this year that most including yourself will totally miss.
And you will be wrong on this. The only way the ATH doesn't get taken out on US indexes in your lifetime is if you die because of the virus within 1-2 years. US markets are global in nature.
If you believe it's a bear market for 10 years then you believe that people won't get back to work for the next 10 years.
Yes the doomsday prophesies are similar to early 2009. I don't think the virus has will have the lasting impact on markets that the subprime mortgage crisis had. Downside will overshoot on panic and fear creating a massive contrarian opportunity even easier to trade then trying to guess the top on the way up.
If this was a 15 minute chart would you buy the close of that bar or sell it? I'd buy for the bottom of an eventual trading range. Bull markets this strong transition into trading ranges, not bear market. Although the bar looks scary, dont sweat it.