exactly. it's pretty funny actually. forget about testing the sentiment in the US market - you have to test the sentiment in the global markets. intl markets come down, it pressures the US. the hilarious thing is expectations for the intl markets are to continue their pace. oh really? so china will double again? india will gain 50% again? vietnam will gain 150% again? please.
talking with some aquaintances, and yes, hairdressers and registered nurses are once again getting back into the stock game.
Even if that were true, which I don't believe it is, it could still be 6 months to a year before any major correction.
You know that same happened last year right? Then came january or february...I ponder...markets went down. Just wait for the next year....it will come and so will the correction. Of course, it might be a minor one but, it can be a large on as well. Unfortunatly I do not have a crystalball, nor any idea where the markets are going to finish. This reminds me of a CNBC interview in the end of last year, where bunch of 'market gurus' were trying to pick where the market is going to finish. Everybody where very modest or bullish. Except, one. Actually if I reckon correctly he called DOW to be finished on 12,500. Hmmmm.....nice call (whom ever that might be)
this is hilarious. reminds me of may. there were a ton of bearish threads out there. the bears just kept on calling top top top. no avail. the bulls were taunting saying wait for the trend. then the floor fell out of the naz hard. i really don't care if there are a lot of ET threads that are bearish. i sorta consider it an affirmative indicator rather than a contrarian. the market is about to turn and it's gonna be a bloodbath. it's very clear that we're about to go into a recession by april and that sentiment -in aggregate - is extremely bullish. not a good mix especially with jan's negative seasonality on the NAZ. longs get killed at will in Q1 07.
I know it has been said a million times but trade what you see. Don't force a prediction, it will only cloud your judgement. No need to be bear or bull but you must be able to adapt.
correct, trade what you see and listen to what your trading ! spx contract says buy 1375 june puts for 23.00 - 24.00 . peace, bgp