This guy says the bull market is already starting... Where was he since 2009?

Buy1Sell2 · Dec 11, 2016

Maverick74 said:
When did the bull market begin, IRL?

Posted October 13, 2016 by Joshua M Brown

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Just musing on the topic of when the current bull market actually began…

Some investors and many people in the media tend not to understand the concept of secular bull markets and so they date the start of this one to March of 2009. They tell you it’s “long in the tooth” and they count other bull markets that haven’t made it this many years in a row as evidence for why it should end soon.

This is so wrong for so many reasons I can’t even get into them all.

Here are a few:

Averages are made up of extreme readings. The stock market, on average produces single-digit returns, but in any given year it almost never does the average on the nose. In fact, most positive years for the market are a double-digit gain, as Ben Carlson showed this week. So to say “bull markets are an average of 5 years and we’ve been going up for 7” totally confuses people. Sometimes, on purpose.

It’s become likely that we are in a secular bull market for stocks. We do not measure secular bull markets from the bear market low of the prior cycle. The 1982-2000 secular bull market is measured from the day in 1982 when stocks finally took out their 1966 high. It had been a 16 year secular bear market until closing above those highs, and stocks never looked back. We do not date that bull market from the lows of 1973-1974 that were the nadir of the prior bear. Nor should we use 2009 as our starting point for the current bull market. 2009 was merely the cycle low of the prior bear, not the starting point of the current bull.

The actual starting point of the current secular bull market is the spring of 2013, when we broke above the double-top record highs of 2000 and 2007. This means we’re only into the third year.

I also would like to asterisk the fall of 2011 because the S&P 500 dropped 21% briefly in the depths of that panic, which would restart the count anyway if you were using 2009. This is semantics but important if we’re serious about dating. A drop into 20%+ drawdown, even if it’s brief, means a bear market and the end of the previous bull, if we’re using the generally accepted 20% (which is also meaningless, but it is what it is).

This is what the secular breakout of 2013 looks like, in relation to the breakaway from the prior two peaks between 2000-2007. By this count, the previous secular bear was 13 years (2000-2013), hence the current bull market is 3, not 7, and has a long way to go before anyone can say that it’s gone too far:

Now I want you to go read Michael Batnick’s awesome post about what it was like when the stock market broke into the secular bull market from 1982-2000.

That fall, as in the spring of 2013 when the current one began, things were awfully shaky and scary for market participants. It was only years later that the ’82 breakout could be seen for what it really was – a new dawn after a long period of lackluster returns…

This week in 1982 marked a major milestone in the history of the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 1,000- its highest levels in nearly a decade- and it was on the precipice of saying sayonara to a 16-year bear market. A new secular bull market was right around the corner and the S&P 500 would go on to advance 1650% over the next 17 years, or 18.3% a year.
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Joshua Brown does not understand market behavior.

Buy1Sell2 · Dec 11, 2016

Maverick74 said:

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According to your definition of bull and bear markets, there are no bear markets on this chart. You are incorrect on an order of the first magnitude.

athlonmank8 · Dec 11, 2016

Dow going to 21500

JackRab · Dec 13, 2016

vanzandt said:
Woolworths, Sears, Union Carbide, Navistar.... the list goes on and on
.....but the charts goes up.
I have no idea, just throwing this out there. When a DOW component doesn't perform... it gets replaced.
I guess folks smarter than I know whats best.
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That's what the smart guy does as well... if it doesn't perform chuck it out. Trackers work in the same way... I do too... They get replaced with something that has more potential.

Also, if a company goes bankrupt it goes to zero on the DOW, but then another company gets added, but the moment of replacement isn't affecting the DOW level itself... so that should be a true reflection.

JackRab · Dec 13, 2016

athlonmank8 said:
Postpone the rate hike will cause a drop?
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IMO yes. Everyone has been getting ready for a rise. If it doesn't happen.. again... to me it means something is wrong. There will be uncertainty and I think the certainty of a slow rise in rates is better than the uncertainty of postponing again and FED not being straight.

But that's my opinion...

comagnum · Dec 13, 2016

The Fed babysits the stock market like a sick patient in the ICU.

athlonmank8 · Dec 13, 2016

JackRab said:
IMO yes. Everyone has been getting ready for a rise. If it doesn't happen.. again... to me it means something is wrong. There will be uncertainty and I think the certainty of a slow rise in rates is better than the uncertainty of postponing again and FED not being straight.

But that's my opinion...
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Ahh i see what you're saying now. Thanks

trader99 · Dec 13, 2016

I haven't looked at the long term charts in a while. WOW! Can't believe this could really be a start of a new bull market.. Or the biggest head fake ever. Time will tell

Arnie · Dec 15, 2016

At just +7% per year increase, DOW could be at 26,000 in 4 years. We were 6000 pts lower at 14000 less than 3 years ago.

athlonmank8 · Dec 15, 2016

athlonmank8 said:
Dow going to 21500
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Still on track for a big push. These interest rate rises will take a few years to start creating waves