Trying to see on your chart where someone would have considered the beginning of the bull market to be in 2013. I don't see it--do you?
Percent off of highs has nothing to do with whether or not a bull or bear market exists. It's whether support has been broken or if there is obvious reversal which in 2007 you had both
Next stop for bull market that started in ..... March 2009. A 5th grader can recognize that. Green, green, green bars straight off the reversal. Maybe.
Saying you have to break out to new highs before a bull market starts is fucking stupid. Guess Japan will never have a bull market again.
When did the bull market begin, IRL? Posted October 13, 2016 by Joshua M Brown Your favorite stock; see if it's a buy, sell or hold opportunity Just musing on the topic of when the current bull market actually began… Some investors and many people in the media tend not to understand the concept of secular bull markets and so they date the start of this one to March of 2009. They tell you it’s “long in the tooth” and they count other bull markets that haven’t made it this many years in a row as evidence for why it should end soon. This is so wrong for so many reasons I can’t even get into them all. Here are a few: Averages are made up of extreme readings. The stock market, on average produces single-digit returns, but in any given year it almost never does the average on the nose. In fact, most positive years for the market are a double-digit gain, as Ben Carlson showed this week. So to say “bull markets are an average of 5 years and we’ve been going up for 7” totally confuses people. Sometimes, on purpose. It’s become likely that we are in a secular bull market for stocks. We do not measure secular bull markets from the bear market low of the prior cycle. The 1982-2000 secular bull market is measured from the day in 1982 when stocks finally took out their 1966 high. It had been a 16 year secular bear market until closing above those highs, and stocks never looked back. We do not date that bull market from the lows of 1973-1974 that were the nadir of the prior bear. Nor should we use 2009 as our starting point for the current bull market. 2009 was merely the cycle low of the prior bear, not the starting point of the current bull. The actual starting point of the current secular bull market is the spring of 2013, when we broke above the double-top record highs of 2000 and 2007. This means we’re only into the third year. I also would like to asterisk the fall of 2011 because the S&P 500 dropped 21% briefly in the depths of that panic, which would restart the count anyway if you were using 2009. This is semantics but important if we’re serious about dating. A drop into 20%+ drawdown, even if it’s brief, means a bear market and the end of the previous bull, if we’re using the generally accepted 20% (which is also meaningless, but it is what it is). This is what the secular breakout of 2013 looks like, in relation to the breakaway from the prior two peaks between 2000-2007. By this count, the previous secular bear was 13 years (2000-2013), hence the current bull market is 3, not 7, and has a long way to go before anyone can say that it’s gone too far: Now I want you to go read Michael Batnick’s awesome post about what it was like when the stock market broke into the secular bull market from 1982-2000. That fall, as in the spring of 2013 when the current one began, things were awfully shaky and scary for market participants. It was only years later that the ’82 breakout could be seen for what it really was – a new dawn after a long period of lackluster returns… This week in 1982 marked a major milestone in the history of the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 1,000- its highest levels in nearly a decade- and it was on the precipice of saying sayonara to a 16-year bear market. A new secular bull market was right around the corner and the S&P 500 would go on to advance 1650% over the next 17 years, or 18.3% a year.
Looking Back at the End of a Secular Bear Market Posted October 12, 2016 by Michael Batnick This week in 1982 marked a major milestone in the history of the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 1,000- its highest levels in nearly a decade- and it was on the precipice of saying sayonara to a 16-year bear market. A new secular bull market was right around the corner and the S&P 500 would go on to advance 1650% over the next 17 years, or 18.3% a year. I looked through the New York Times archive to see what they were saying this week. Nothing too surprising really, it’s not as if I was expecting to see something like “goodbye bear, hello bull” or “put all of your money and all that you can borrow into the stock market right now.” Instead, what was printed is exactly what you would expect to see at the tail end of a long bear market, bad news and lots of skepticism. As the stock market soared, seemingly out of nowhere, economists were left scratching their heads. This quote really sums up the general attitude at the time. “The question now for economists is what produced these wonders at a time of almost unrelievedly bad economic news.” Here are some more headlines and excerpts from this week in 1982, enjoy. October 9, 1982 “Yesterday, the Dow jumped 20.88 points, finishing at 986.85, just 13.15 points away from the 1,000 mark. The last time it closed that high was on June 23, 1981, at 1,006.66. The ”Reagan high,” as it was dubbed on Wall Street, came on April 27 of last year, when the Dow finished at 1,024.05.” “Since Aug. 12, the Dow has climbed 209.93 points, or 27 percent. Never before has the average registered a point gain of this magnitude in a two-month period.” October 9, 1982- WEEK IN BUSINESS; A SURGE TO 10.1% IN UNEMPLOYMENT “America’s unemployment rate in September crossed the double-digit point for the first time since 1940, to 10.1 percent, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nearly 11.3 million people were unemployed – 450,000 higher than in August and a rise of more than 3 million in the last 12 months.” “Retail sales were sluggish in September, the nation’s major retailers reported. Of the five largest, two reported sales declines, while the other three – including Sears, the industry leader – said sales rose less than 3 percent.” October 9, 1982- DOW SOARS 20.88 MORE,TO 986.85 “Analysts said that many of the institutions had invested cautiously in the market’s upswing during mid-August, when interest rates first started to decline, and through September, when the Dow soared more than 150 points, and were now apparently fearful of missing out in the latest rally.” October 10, 1982 “With unemployment still rising, the stubborn stock market rally that began in August escalated last week and the bond market strengthened as investors anticipated lower interest rates.” October 11, 1982- Volcker’s Talk Stirs Cautious Optimism “Consumers remain conservative in their buying habits.” October 11, 1982- Further Rate Drops Predicted “Hopes that the central bank will encourage lower rates was also the springboard for the stock market’s soaring gains last week. The Dow Jones industrial average raced ahead 79.11 points, finishing at 986.85. It was the second-biggest weekly advance on record.” “Despite last week’s stunning advance – the Dow has climbed nearly 210 points, or 27 percent, in less than two months -optimism still reigns.” October 11, 1982- THE FED AND ITS CREDIT DILEMMA; Economic Analysis Legend has it that one day long ago a cowboy stumbled upon one of nature’s most awesome sights, the Grand Canyon. ”Wow,” the cowboy is supposed to have exclaimed. ”Something sure happened here.” Last week something spectacular happened in the financial markets. The stock market rose 79 points, trading surged to a one-day record of 147 million shares on Thursday and interest rates plunged until one Treasury bond now carries a price fully one-third higher than the face value at which it will eventually be paid off….The question now for economists is what produced these wonders at a time of almost unrelievedly bad economic news.” “The double-digit unemployment – 10.1 percent, the highest in 42 years – was announced Friday.” October 11, 1982- BUSINESS DIGEST; MONDAY, OCTOBER 11, 1982; The Economy “The economic situation still worries business leaders, despite plummeting interest rates and the resulting run-up in the stock and credit markets. Business Council members remain concerned about Federal budget deficits and spending, illiquidity and unemployment. “ Source: New York Times Archive
Huh? I don't use percent gained for anything. One of my stocks was up 20% on Friday. Is that stock in a bull market? LOL. I assure you, it's not.