This "edge" stuff

dear porgie

one could elaborate on this, but to cut it short: you're nuts.

pace

 

Dear Mr. Pace,

But then again, think about it......who isn't? thank you and have a spectacular day, my good friend........george

 

your name is george?

paci

 

There is another way to assess edge. Put on a boatload of small trades. If you account grows you may have an edge and you can think about putting on larger trades.

Warning if your maximum drawdowns were a lot bigger than your maximum gains you probably got lucky and will soon blow up. I do not hesitate to reveal this idea because the double down guys never listen until the blow up anyway. (I know you can a multiple add strategy that is not out of balance.)

 

btw are you guys aware of the fact that each and every strategy will go bancrupt? it is just a matter of time until that black swan comes and gets your system out. it might be in five, ten or a thousand years, but finally you are wiped out. we actually considered once to make the expected time until death our major asset allocation tool.

(hence the thing is in essence a VaR, but "timeUntilDeath" adds some drama, doesn't it?)

 

yes I've been toying with the idea of a blackSwan version of monte-carlo.. or some sort of super-pessimistic simulator.

 

not correct.......mathematically impossible for failure to occur......if you see what i see......happy trading

 

If you understand and agree with NTB's posts, then you may , one day, be lucky enough to find and recognize an edge.

If you don't, then you are someone else's edge, and can be considered a public servant in that regard.

 

Very dramatic, but are you able to prove this statement with any reasonable degree of certainty?

 

That would be quite easy and simple - when a buy signal on a chart is showed lower than a sell signal.